Is Gaza Becoming Another Lebanon? (JCPA) JERUSALEM CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS) Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad, Director of Policy and Political-Military Affairs, Israel Ministry of Defense Vol. 6, No. 18 - 21 January 2007)
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The Iranians have a clear goal to combine their long-range
missiles with their developing nuclear technology. We are living in
the final years before Iran goes nuclear. Listen carefully to
Ahmadinejad. He is not insane. He embodies very accurately the nature
of the Iranian regime and he is gaining popularity among Muslims.
Iran wants to establish an axis to compete against the moderate
Sunni Arab countries, and Israel is in the center of the conflict. To
weaken the vicious axis sponsored by Iran, Israel must join in an
unofficial alliance with the Sunni Arab world.
All the rockets in the hands of Hizbullah are an integral part of
a whole system that enables Iran to attack Israel from Lebanon
without taking responsibility. The Iranians are not happy with what
happened in Lebanon because Israel attacked the infrastructure they
had built before they were ready.
Syria is another regional actor supporting terror in Hamastan and
Hizbullahstan. The headquarters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are in
Damascus, and all Iranian assistance to rebuild Hizbullah crosses
Syrian territory. In addition, Syria directly supported Hizbullah in
Lebanon. Syrian rockets from the Syrian army were given to Hizbullah
to use to attack Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, sitting in Damascus where he is
supported by Iran and Syria, controls the military wing of Hamas and
is more powerful than PA Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh. Mashaal is
responsible for the money, for the policy of terror, and he holds
many cards relating to Israel´s abducted soldier in Gaza.
The Iranian Connection
To understand the situation in Gaza, we must first focus on Iran. The
issue of Iran as a potential strategic threat on the horizon was
first raised back in the 1990s. At that time, however, there were
illusions about then-Iranian President Khatami. Now there are no more
illusions because the current Iranian president, Ahmadinejad, is so
clear about his objectives. The Iranians have a clear goal to combine
their long-range missiles with their developing nuclear technology.
From Israel´s point of view, Iran has the potential of becoming the
existential threat it is frequently declared to be. We are living in
the final years before Iran goes nuclear. Listen carefully to
Ahmadinejad. He is not insane. He embodies very accurately the nature
of the Iranian regime and he is gaining popularity among Muslims. We
have to take him seriously because of the developing capability
behind his policy.
Iran wants to establish an axis to compete against the moderate Sunni
Arab countries, and Israel is in the center of the conflict. Iran
created Hizbullahstan to Israel´s north, which is more powerful than
the Lebanese Republic in which it is located. To Israel´s south is
another entity, Sunni Hamastan. In Iraq, the Shiites and Sunnis are
eating each other, but both are cooperating against Israel, where
they want to eat us together.
One danger of Hamastan and Hizbullahstan is that they serve as an
example, an inspiration for the whole Muslim world. What if they
succeed? Can you imagine what the Middle East would be like for
Israel without the peace with Egypt and Jordan, without the
leadership of President Mubarak and King Abdallah? They are both
pillars of a sane, stable Middle East. Even states like Saudi Arabia
understand that Iran is the main threat to their stability, their
existence, and to the whole area.
The moment Iran achieves nuclear capability, it will inspire terror,
instability, and efforts to take over the Gulf States. Iran has a
dream to become a regional superpower. To weaken the vicious axis
sponsored by Iran, Israel must join in an unofficial alliance with
the Sunni Arab world.
After the War in Lebanon
The war in Lebanon, with all its problems, has resulted in some at
least temporary achievements. Hizbullahstan is weaker because Israel
destroyed its bunkers along the border, as well as the Iranian rocket
deployment that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Its aim was to
cover the Galilee with 10,000 rockets, as well as longer-range
rockets that could reach Tel Aviv.
Hizbullah is now determined to destroy the Lebanese government, to
reestablish Hizbullahstan, to rebuild its military and terrorist
infrastructures, and to support Palestinian terror and destabilize
the Palestinian entity.
Furthermore, all the rockets that are in the hands of Hizbullah are
an integral part of a whole system that enables Iran to attack Israel
from Lebanon without taking responsibility. I think that the Iranians
are not happy with what happened in Lebanon because Israel attacked
the infrastructure they had built before they were ready.
The Role of Syria
Syria is another regional actor supporting terror in Hamastan and
Hizbullahstan. The headquarters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are in
Damascus, and all Iranian assistance to rebuild Hizbullah crosses
Syrian territory. In addition, Syria directly supported Hizbullah in
Lebanon. Syrian rockets from the Syrian army were given to Hizbullah
to use to attack Israel.
The Syrian army lacks any intention to attack Israel for the time
being, though Israel was on alert during the war in Lebanon. Syrian
President Assad may not be in favor of the State of Israel, but if we
analyze all the intelligence material, we don´t find any hint that
he´s going to attack.
However, Assad is determined to return to Lebanon and to restore
Syrian influence on the Lebanese government and its policies. Syria
is not going to recognize Lebanon as an independent state. This is
traditional Syrian policy and Assad is returning to this policy.
The Palestinian Arena
While the most important threat to the future of this region is Iran.
Gaza and the West Bank belong to the same strategic picture. In the
Palestinian arena, Mahmoud Abbas is the only one who embodies some
hope for coexistence with Israel, while Hamastan is a total
contradiction of the perception of peace. The weapons being smuggled
into Gaza can be used to destabilize the Abbas´ regime as well as
against Israel.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, sitting in Damascus where he is
supported by Iran and Syria, controls the military wing of Hamas and
is more powerful than PA Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh. Mashaal is
responsible for the money, for the policy of terror, and he holds
many cards relating to Israel´s abducted soldier in Gaza. Even if he
wanted to be more moderate, Mashaal receives orders from Iran and
Syria. So it is very difficult to come to any agreement that will
ease the life of the Palestinians or pave the way to peace.
- Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad is Director of Policy and Political-
Military Affairs at the Israel Ministry of Defense. Gen. Gilad has
also served as the Defense Ministry´s Coordinator for the
Administered Territories, Director of the Research Division of the
IDF´s Intelligence Branch, and as the IDF Spokesman. This Jerusalem
Issue Brief is based on his presentation at the Institute for
Contemporary Affairs in Jerusalem on November 13, 2006. (Copyright ©
2007 JCPA. 01/21/07)
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