A Strategic Assessment of the Hizballah War: Defeating the Iranian-Syrian Axis in Lebanon (JCPA) JERUSALEM CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS) JERUSALEM ISSUE BRIEFVol. 6, No. 2 by Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror and Dan Diker 07/19/06)
Source: http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief006-2.htm
JCPA-Jerusalem Center Public Affairs
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Israel´s current military operations to uproot Hizballah and to
destroy it as a formidable military and terror organization is not
merely an operation against another determined terror group like
Hamas in Gaza. Hizballah has a disciplined, well-trained army with
sophisticated weaponry, backed directly by Syria and Iran.
A high-level Iranian official recently emphasized to Western
diplomats in London Hizballah´s importance to Iran: "Hizballah is one
of the pillars of our security strategy, and forms Iran´s first line
of defense against Israel." Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese Druze
leader, shares this perspective: "The war is no longer Lebanon´s...it
is an Iranian war. Iran is telling the United States: You want to
fight me in the Gulf and destroy my nuclear program? I will hit you
at home, in Israel."
Iran´s Revolutionary Guards provide the majority of Hizballah´s
weaponry, financing, instruction, and strategic command and control.
Hizballah´s short- and medium-range missiles are manufactured in Iran
and exported to Lebanon via the Damascus International Airport.
Iranian officers from the Revolutionary Guards are on the ground in
Lebanon, playing active roles in supervising terror actions and
training Hizballah operatives to launch rockets against Israel.
Hizballah is nothing less than an extension of Iran´s
Revolutionary Guards. Iran has taken a strategic decision to activate
Hizballah terror against Israel in order to preclude the United
States and its Western allies from stopping Iran´s nuclear
development program.
The only way to defeat an insurgency is to first isolate it from
external reinforcement. Israel is seeking to cut off Hizballah from
Syria and Iran and isolate it from the rest of Lebanon. Israel must
carry out its current military operation against Hizballah until it
is fully neutralized and disarmed. It would be nothing short of
catastrophic for both Israel and the international community if
diplomatic efforts result in Israel being forced to end its military
operation prematurely.
Hizballah Has No Red Lines
The current war being waged against Israel by Hizballah and its
Syrian and Iranian patrons is in large part the result of Israel´s
long-time, hands-off policy with regard to the Lebanon-based
fundamentalist terror group. Since Israel´s overnight unilateral
withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah built itself into a
deterrent military force possessing 13,000 to 15,000 short- and
medium-range missiles. The terror organization exploited Israel´s
political preference to maintain the relative quiet for the residents
of its northern border communities instead of uprooting the Hizballah
terror infrastructure and risking war. As a result of Israel´s
skittishness to confront it, Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah
assessed that he could determine when to launch hostilities against
Israel completely on Hizballah´s terms.
Hizballah - the "Party of God" - has no red lines. Any strategic
strike that it can execute, it will execute, limited only by its
ability and the conditions permitting it to carry out an attack at
any particular moment. In that regard, Hassan Nasrallah lives in his
own bubble in which he judges democratic Israel the same way he
judges the Lebanese or those in Hizballah. Nasrallah recently called
Israeli resolve "weaker than a spider´s web."
Nasrallah´s decision to kidnap two Israeli soldiers on July 12 was
made partly in reaction to Hamas´ kidnapping at the Israel-Gaza
border of Cpl. Gilad Shalit. Nasrallah said in a speech shortly after
the terror attack and kidnapping of the two Israeli army reservists
that he wished to negotiate an exchange for Samir Kuntar, a Lebanese
terrorist, and other "prisoners and detainees held by Israel."1
Israeli intelligence assessed that Nasrallah meant he would also
negotiate for Palestinians as well, and thereby assume a leading role
on the Palestinian issue as well, even ahead of Hamas.
Israel´s Response
According to Israeli intelligence assessments, Hizballah, Syria, and
Iran were taken by surprise by the sheer magnitude and intensity of
Israel´s response to the missile attacks and kidnapping. Nasrallah
did not understand what causes a democratic country to act harshly
when its red lines are crossed and its citizens are threatened, as
Israelis are today. Nasrallah never thought that as a result of
kidnapping two soldiers, Israel would launch such a far-reaching
counter-offensive. He failed to understand that Israel has gone to
war because Hizballah has launched a strategic attack against it, and
that Israel views the kidnappings as part of a much greater threat.
Israel´s current military operations to uproot Hizballah and to
destroy it as a formidable military and terror organization is not
merely an operation against another determined terror group like
Hamas in Gaza. Hizballah has a disciplined, well-trained army with
sophisticated weaponry, backed directly by Syria and Iran.
Iran´s Role
According to a May 11, 2006, Asharq Al-Awsat report, a high-level
Iranian official who held a closed meeting with a small group of
Western diplomats in London emphasized Hizballah´s importance to
Iran: "Hizballah is one of the pillars of our security strategy, and
forms Iran´s first line of defense against Israel. We reject [the
claim] that it must be disarmed."2 Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese Druze
leader, shares this perspective: "The war is no longer Lebanon´s...it
is an Iranian war. Iran is telling the United States: You want to
fight me in the Gulf and destroy my nuclear program? I will hit you
at home, in Israel."3
Hizballah is not an independent actor. Iran´s Revolutionary Guards
provide the majority of Hizballah´s weaponry, financing, instruction,
and strategic command and control. Most of Hizballah´s terrorist
weaponry, particularly short- and medium-range missiles - including
the Zalzal missile that can reach as far as Tel Aviv, 150 kilometers
from Israel´s northern border - are manufactured in Iran and exported
to Lebanon via the Damascus International Airport.4 Weaponry and
materiel are then openly transported by truck convoys to Hizbullah in
Lebanon.
According Israeli intelligence, Iranian officers from the
Revolutionary Guards are on the ground in Lebanon, playing active
roles in supervising terror actions and training Hizballah operatives
to launch rockets against Israel.5 On July 14, Hizbullah fired an
Iranian copy of a Chinese C-802 Kowthar missile at an Israeli
warship, killing four crew members. These rockets have been in the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards´ arsenal for four or five years.
Some of Hizballah´s weaponry is manufactured by Syria and is provided
to the terror organization at the direct order of President Bashar
Assad. The rockets in the first barrage that struck the northern city
of Haifa on July 16, killing eight Israelis, were manufactured and
supplied by Syria. Other medium-range Syrian and Iranian missiles are
also in Hizballah´s stockpile but have yet to be used against Israel.
Dimensions of the Conflict
On a macro level, there are three dimensions to the current war
against Hizballah:
The first dimension is Hizballah´s ability as a highly-disciplined
terror force with approximately 13,000 rockets that have wreaked
havoc on hundreds of thousands of Israelis in northern Israel.
Additionally, its ground forces were previously deployed right up to
the Israeli-Lebanese border, oftentimes within rifle range of public
buildings in Israeli towns and villages. In this regard, it is
abundantly clear that Israel cannot allow Hizballah to return to its
former positions in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army must be
deployed to ensure that southern Lebanon remains free of Hizballah
control.
Second, Hizballah cannot be allowed to be the driving force that
decides, whenever it so chooses, together with its Syrian and Iranian
patrons, to inflame the Middle East. In this sense, Israel´s current
war in Lebanon is not punitive; it is strategic. The Israeli air
force has struck the main arteries for the transfer of weapons to
Hizballah from Syria and Iran through Beirut International Airport,
all Lebanese seaports, and across the Beirut-Damascus highway from
the east, which has served as one of Hizballah´s main lines of
weapons transport. During the present hostilities, Syria has
continued to attempt to resupply Hizballah in the Bekaa Valley, as
well.
In bombing Hizballah´s Daheyh stronghold in the southern suburbs of
Beirut, Israel is seeking to separate it from Hizballah forces
further south. Thus, Hizballah is being cut off from Syria and Iran
and isolated from the rest of Lebanon. Hizballah has waged an
insurgency against Israel from the mini-state it has created inside
of Lebanon. The only way to defeat an insurgency is to first isolate
it from external reinforcement. That is what Israel is seeking to do.
In a second phase, the insurgency must be disarmed. In this regard,
the international community must enforce UN Security Council
Resolution 1559 that imposes the obligations of state sovereignty and
responsibility on Lebanon to force the Hizballah to disarm, as even
French President Jacques Chirac has demanded.
The third and broader dimension of the escalating conflict is that
Hizballah is nothing less than an extension of Iran´s Revolutionary
Guards. Iran has taken a strategic decision to activate Hizballah
terror against Israel in order to preclude the United States and its
Western allies from stopping Iran´s nuclear development program. The
uprooting of Hizballah´s military capacity will neutralize one of
Iran´s most dangerous and valuable deterrent threats against any
country that attempts to act against Tehran´s nuclear weapons program.
The Stakes for Israel and the West
Israel must carry out its current military operation against
Hizballah until it is fully neutralized, disarmed, and unable to
serve as Iran´s long "arm" that can bring terror upon Israel and
destabilize the Middle East region at will. The current Israeli
victims of Hizballah terror will not have sacrificed their lives in
vain if Israel conducts its war to an uncompromising victory.
However, if Hizballah is allowed to remain a military force in
Lebanon or even an armed presence in southern Lebanon, Israel will
have indeed sacrificed its soldiers and citizens in vain, and will
also suffer similar attacks in the future.
Furthermore, it is a primary interest of the international community
that Hizballah be fully neutralized as a military extension of Iran.
Only a full victory against Hizballah will allow the possibility for
Lebanon to emerge as a free and democratic country. This is also in
line with the Bush Administration´s vision of helping the peoples of
the Middle East to free themselves of tyrannical and fundamentalist
elements and prevent the threat to the region of a nuclear Iran. This
underscores the regional and international importance of Israel´s
current mission.
Any Syrian or Iranian forces or advisors in Lebanon are legitimate
targets for Israel. Israel must send a clear message to Bashar Assad
that it will not accept any Syrian interference in Lebanon. However,
while Israel should not open up a front against Syria at this
juncture, if Syrian forces show any type of movement, Israel must be
ready to engage them.
The duration of the current war depends on Israel, Lebanon, and the
international community. If the Lebanese realize that with every
passing day the accumulating losses are taking too great a toll, if
the international community continues to allow Israel to uproot
Hizballah without pressuring Israel for a cease-fire, and if the UN
stays out of the fray, the war does not have to last very long. But
if Israel is pressured to stop its operations, this acute conflict
will indeed last a long time.
This is a war in which Israel is acting primarily through its air
force, which is a new approach. However, if Israel´s air force fails
to stop Hizballah rocket assaults, Israel may be forced to send in
substantial ground forces to control the areas from which rockets are
being launched. This real possibility would have far-reaching
implications in terms of potential losses for the IDF and for the
citizens of Lebanon.
No less significant is Israel´s readiness to absorb damage to its
home front. This requires a much higher degree of national resilience
than that of the first Iraq war when Saddam Hussein fired 39 Scud
missiles at Israeli cities. This time there is much more damage and
loss of life on the home front, but Israel is showing great fortitude
and national will.
Iran´s Ongoing War Against the West
Even if Israel is successful in destroying the Hizballah
infrastructure, Iran will not be deterred in its ongoing war against
the West, for Hizballah´s attacks on Israel represent Iran´s
strategic decision to launch what it sees as a counter-offensive
against the West following America´s post 9/11 attacks on the regimes
in Iraq and Afghanistan. Echoing Iran´s perspective, the conservative
daily Jomhour-e Eslami, affiliated with the Islamic seminaries of
Qom, reiterated in a July 17 editorial the charge that "the
conspiracy of bringing down the Twin Towers in New York with one
plane, which was totally dubious, was a pretext for occupying
Afghanistan and Iraq, and for [providing] unqualified support to the
Zionist regime in its crimes against Palestine."6
The Iranian editorial noted that "America´s collaboration with the
Zionists in murdering the Palestinian people, destroying Lebanon, and
[hurling] baseless accusations against Iran [regarding] nuclear
activity - which is now coming to a head - is a new phase in
America´s crusade against the Muslims. This is exactly the point at
which the leadership of the Islamic nation must play a role."7 This
underscores the assessment that if Hizballah is neutralized in the
current conflict, Iran will have lost a major asset in its ongoing
struggle against the West.
The Diplomatic Front
In order to achieve its war objectives, Israel must succeed on the
diplomatic front in addition to the battlefield. It would be nothing
short of catastrophic for both Israel and the international community
if diplomatic efforts result in Israel being forced to end its
military operation prematurely. Furthermore, it is incumbent on the
international community, which last year demanded that the Syrian
army withdraw from Lebanon, to provide the necessary assistance to
Lebanon that will ensure that Hizballah is disbanded as a military
force, and this must be the highest international priority.
Notes
1. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3274616,00.html
2. Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI),
http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD120406
3. Anton La Guardia, "Israel Fights West´s Cause Against Radical
Islam," Telegraph (UK), July 17, 2006.
4. See Uzi Rubin, "The Global Range of Iran´s Ballistic Missile
Program," Jerusalem Issue Brief 5-26, http://jcpa.org/brief/brief005-
26.htm
5. An Iranian military source close to the Revolutionary Guards
leadership revealed to the London Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat
details concerning Iran´s role in training and arming Hizbullah. The
source said that "in Lebanon, there are 70 trainers, experts, and
technicians, as well as 60 Faylaq Quds intelligence agents, who
assist the Hizballah missile unit and its local leadership. In
addition, there is a secret Revolutionary Guards unit, consisting of
20 officers, who use advanced means to track the movement of Israeli
forces in the field, and select targets in Israel for the operation
commanders. http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?
Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP120706
6. MEMRI, July 17, 2006, http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?
ID=SD120806
7. MEMRI, http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD120806
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