The return to Lebanon on Saturday of former Lebanese Army commander Gen. Michel Aoun, some 15 years after being forced into exile by Syrian forces, is a symbol of hope for those Lebanese seeking a democratic, independent and sovereign state, according to analyst Moshe Marzouk.

Aoun, an ardent opponent of Syria´s control over the Land of the Cedars, was given a hero´s welcome by a huge crowd of supporters in Beirut´s Martyr´s Square shortly after alighting at the capital´s airport from a flight that had brought him, his wife and scores of aides, from Paris.

The man, who led a "war of liberation" against Syria in 1989-90 and had to take refuge in the French Embassy in Beirut after the bombing of his palace by Syrian Air Force planes that brought an end to the fighting, seems to have his sights set on the presidency.

Aoun, however, first has to open lines of communication with potential political allies in the ranks of the so-called opposition forces whose anti-Syrian protests in the wake of the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri were instrumental in forcing Damascus to withdraw its military from Lebanon.

It was the pullout of Syrian troops, which was completed at the end of April, and the cancellation by a Beirut judge of an arrest warrant against, Aoun that enabled him to return to Lebanon.

"Aoun might have been in exile for 15 years but in practice he has remained very much involved in Lebanese affairs and he received many visits from Lebanese seeking his advice," Marzouk, a former senior officer in IDF intelligence, told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

"Aoun´s return to Lebanon is a symbol of hope for those opposed to Syria´s occupation and those who want Lebanon to be free. It also represents a symbol to those opposed to the strengthening of extremist Islamic forces, especially Hizbullah, and who want to see Lebanon as part of the West and not part of dictatorial Arab states," he said.

Marzouk, now a senior researcher at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center´s Institute for Counterterrorism, noted that Aoun´s reappearance in Lebanon on the eve of the national elections was likely to have an effect in the political arena.

"I believe that the internal political struggles between the various factions, and especially between pro-Syrian elements and opposition forces, are likely to become more blatant in the run-up to the elections, which are scheduled to be held from May 29 to mid-June," he said.

Lebanese parliamentarians are currently engaged in heated debates over the size of constituencies and the number of representatives that would be returned to the parliament from each district.

Smaller constituencies would favor the Christians, Druse, and Sunnis while larger ones would give a bigger representation to the Shi´ites, who compose the majority of the population in Lebanon.

Mapping the districts in advance could help pre-determine the outcome of the elections by ensuring, for instance, that there would be sufficient support in certain expanded constituencies for pro-Syrian candidates.

Aoun, as someone who is viewed by many as a Lebanese patriot and who has not been actively involved in politics for 15 years and cannot be accused of corrupt practices, could play a pivotal role in helping unify the opposition forces to thwart such attempts.

Marzouk stressed that Syria, which has reportedly left its intelligence network and security apparatus intact in Lebanon, would do its utmost through these agencies and its Lebanese proxies to undermine all the efforts of Aoun and the opposition forces.

He said it was highly unlikely that Syria would sanction any attempts at this stage to assassinate Aoun because of the potential ramifications in light of the spontaneous reaction by tens of thousands of Lebanese to the killing of Hariri.

"The Syrians and their Lebanese supporters will do everything possible to ensure a pro-Syrian majority in the parliament and that pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will continue in office to protect Syrian interests and ensure continued close ties between Beirut and Damascus," said Marzouk.

Aoun in the past expressed his interest in a peace accord between Lebanon and Israel and of the need to disarm Hizbullah and extend Lebanese sovereignty over the whole of Lebanon, including the south.

In the intervening years, however, he and leaders of his Free Patriotic Movement have adopted the stance that any peace accord with Israel should be part of a general peace treaty with neighboring Arab states and that there should not be an agreement solely between Israel and Lebanon.

Marzouk said the attempt in 1983 to reach a separate peace accord with Lebanon was one of the biggest mistakes ever made by Israel and one that should never be repeated.

"Israel is not involved in any way in internal Lebanese affairs and has nothing to do with Aoun and that is how it should be. Aoun is identified as a politician and leader who is concerned first and foremost with Lebanon," he said.

Aoun has not, apparently, changed his mind about the need for Hizbullah to be disarmed and for it to become a political movement but he may have decided to adopt a more pragmatic approach, given reports that a channel of communication is to be opened between him and the extremist Iranian-backed and Syrian-supported Shi´ite organization.

The former Lebanese Army chief was acting as prime minister and, in practice, as president at the time he led the armed struggle against Syria and its Lebanese allies in the battle he lost in 1990.

Aoun does not hide his intention to become president in place of Lahoud. To achieve that, however, he will need to win the support of all those in the opposition who, in turn, will need to win a clear majority in the parliamentary elections.

The only other way to oust Lahoud would be by people power and a resumption of the mass demonstrations, backed by the international community, that paved the way for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

In the interim, Aoun will have to tread very carefully through the minefield of Lebanese politics if he is to capitalize on the support he has received on his return from exile and turn the symbol of hope for a genuinely free Lebanon into a reality. (© 1995-2005, The Jerusalem Post 05/09/05)