Fifteen years ago, during the momentous months of 1989, pundits predicted that democracy would soon sweep the Arab world as it did Eastern Europe.

After 40 years of socialist dictatorship, the Iron Curtain collapsed as millions spilled into the streets demanding that they would accept nothing less than a new, free political order. During that intoxicating time, it seemed as if nothing could stop the relentless march of freedom. Perhaps, as Francis Fukuyama would later remark in his famous article, the "end of history" was indeed upon us.

Saad Eddin Ibrahim, famed pro-democracy activist and once my professor and teacher, said in 1989 that there were "beginnings of democratic transformation" in the Arab world and that Egypt was "on the road of democracy."

More than a decade later, he would find himself languishing in the notorious Tura prison, home to Egypt´s countless dissidents.

Unique among its neighbors, Jordan was at the time experiencing dramatic changes of its own. On November 12, 1989, a carnival-like atmosphere pervaded the streets of Amman, as Jordanians proudly voted for their country´s first freely elected parliament since 1957, when Sulayman al-Nabulsi´s popular government saw its premature demise.

Georgetown Professor Hisham Sharabi was understandably generous when he said that Jordan was playing a "heroic role" and had become "the conscience of the Arab world."

Fifteen years later, it would be a stretch to call Jordan a democracy, for the simple reason that it is not.

As far as political development is concerned, the past 15 years have been nothing if not stagnant. The University of Jordan´s Center for Strategic Studies in its tracking of popular sentiment has found that perceptions of the level of democracy have remained virtually unchanged for 10 years while Jordan´s ratings in the Freedom House index have stayed nearly the same since 1989´s breakthrough.

IN THE late 1980s, Algeria showed similar signs of progress, moving in dramatic fashion toward a multi-party system, after President Chadli Benjedid bravely initiated sweeping political reforms. When an Islamic party appeared poised to win the 1991 parliamentary elections, the Algerian military intervened and cancelled the elections, provoking a brutal civil war that would rage for years.

Algeria´s experiment with democracy had come to a tragic end, leaving the Arab people to wonder what could have been.

Yet if anything will break the authoritarian status quo in the Arab world, it is the imposing shadow of 9/11. It has become abundantly clear that closed, undemocratic Arab regimes have created a poisonous atmosphere conducive to the rise of extremist violence. There is a new global consensus that change in the Arab world is no longer a luxury, but an imperative.

Just as importantly, the Arab people, long neutralized by a potent mixture of apathy and despair, are now showing signs of life. And so it was on December 12 in Cairo, with demonstrators, 1,000-strong, gathered in front of the country´s Supreme Judicial Court, protesting President Hosni Mubarak plans to run for a fifth six-year term.

It was one of those terribly rare moments in modern Arab political history. In a region that has proven so immune to change, even a seemingly minor event is never just that.

"This is a historic protest," said Magdi Ahmed Hussein, summing up the prevailing sentiment. "We´ve entered a new phase."

BUT HAVE we? Such a protest would have been inconceivable five years ago. This, however, is a different time, a time when "democracy" is on the lips of millions of Arabs who have never tasted it.

There is cause for hope, but it would be dangerous to see this as a harbinger of great things to come. This is not Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands rallied in the icy cold in jubilant solidarity.

At this crucial juncture, the Arab people could use some much-needed help from outside powers. It is time for the US to prove its rhetorical commitment to the promotion of democracy. Many undemocratic Arab states continue to be supported, financially and militarily, by the US.

Mubarak´s regime, to name only the most egregious example, receives more than $2 billion in annual American aid. But it is the very fact that the US government provides Egypt with so much aid that gives it the leverage needed to exert diplomatic pressure on Mubarak´s regime in the critical months ahead.

The US should encourage and – if need be pressure – recalcitrant Arab regimes to move decisively toward greater freedoms and the opening of political space for opposition parties.

Those who care for the future of democracy must capitalize on every opening. Real political reform will only come about with a combination of external pressure from the US and the European Union on one hand, and internal pressure from pro-democracy secularists, nationalists, and Islamists on the other.

Saad Eddin Ibrahim´s optimistic predictions 15 years ago turned out to be dreadfully wrong. Yet, just because the Arab world fell short in the past, does not mean it is doomed to fail in the future.

Last month, I talked to Dr. Ibrahim – as sprightly as ever despite his declining health – at a conference here in Jordan, and was reassured and inspired by his still indefatigable belief in the potential for change.

Too often, the Arab world has seen itself consumed by the alternating currents of hope and despair. Yet, today, there is something different in the air, something that words cannot adequately describe.

We have a window of opportunity. Let us seize the moment. If we do not we will be forced to wait years for the stars to align themselves once again.

The writer is a Fulbright Fellow, conducting research on democratization and political Islam in Amman, Jordan. (© 1995-2005, The Jerusalem Post 01/31/05)