With measured steps, the hudna is approaching its end. It will undoubtedly be some time yet before the official end is declared: All sides still have a certain interest in postponing a major conflagration. But when the events of the past week are examined in hindsight, it seems likely they will be judged to contain the seeds of the next round of violence: in the Palestinian Authority´s stubborn refusal to take even the most minimal steps against terrorism; in the Israel Defense Forces´ proactive operations against senior wanted men in areas that have not yet been handed over to PA control; and especially in the revenge attacks carried out by the terrorist organizations after Israel killed some of their members. And, as at several key junctures in the past (the first month of the current conflict, the assassination of senior Fatah operative Ra´ad Carmi), it seems that this time as well, Israel has done its share to contribute to the deterioration.

On Tuesday, Hamas dictated the new rules of the game. The suicide bombing in Ariel was described as "exacting a price" from Israel for the killing of two Hamas operatives in the Askar refugee camp last Friday. Islamic Jihad, which over the last six weeks has adhered to the hudna less strictly than Hamas, will not allow itself to deviate from the standards of response set by the larger organization. Another suicide bombing in retaliation for yesterday´s killing of Mohammed Sidr, the head of Islamic Jihad´s military wing in Hebron, is only a matter of time. Israel will then respond with further attempts to arrest Hamas and Jihad operatives, some of which will surely go wrong and lead to the deaths of the wanted men. The ensuing developments will certainly not contribute to strengthening the hudna.

Mohammed Sidr had a great deal of "blood on his hands." At last count, the cell he led had killed 21 civilians and soldiers. Ever since his group committed the attack on the Worshipers´ Way in Hebron last November (which killed the commander of the Hebron Brigade, Colonel Dror Weinberg, and 11 other members of the security services), the IDF and the Shin Bet security services have tried repeatedly to either arrest or kill him. It seems that yesterday, when an operational opportunity opened up thanks to the receipt of solid information about his whereabouts, the defense establishment had trouble restraining itself.

There is no need to shed any tears for Mohammed Sidr. He was not in the process of reconciling himself to Israel´s existence at the time of his death, and had he lived, sooner or later he would certainly have been behind additional fatal attacks on Israeli citizens. The question, as always in such cases, relates to the timing of the arrest operation - which was always likely to end in Sidr´s death, as he is not the type of terrorist who gives himself up. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz yesterday defined the senior Jihad operative as a "ticking bomb." These are the same words he used to describe the two Hamas operatives killed last week.

This represents a changed approach that Israel has not yet announced publicly. Until a week ago, the defense establishment claimed that Hamas operatives (and, to a lesser extent, parts of Islamic Jihad) were honoring the hudna, but were also using it to rehabilitate their operational capabilities. Recently, however, new intelligence has indicated that some of the Islamic organizations´ field operatives have tired of the cease-fire and have resumed planning near-term attacks. Military sources said this information is reliable.

If this is indeed what happened, the facts should be presented in full. As long as Israel makes do with generic statements about "ticking bombs" and "an attack the wanted man was planning in the near future," there will always be those who suspect it is Israel that is stirring up trouble in order to free itself of the yoke of the concessions demanded by the road map. And this suspicion is liable to grow in light of the reality on the ground: the miserly prisoner release; the frequent closures of roads that were only recently reopened to Palestinian traffic as an Israeli "gesture" and an overall atmosphere of mutual distrust and pessimism on both sides. (© Copyright 2003 Haaretz. 08/15/03)