Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas will present US President George Bush with maps of the Palestinian areas and the separation fence Israel is building, as Fatah official and legislator Mohammad Hourani told The Jerusalem Post, in order to demonstrate that Israel confiscating more than 20% of the West Bank.

Hourani said Abbas would present his maps to other American officials and Jewish organizations as well in order to show them that building the fence would cause Palestinians to lose thousands of dunams of their land and "lead to a complete loss of hope".

The Palestinians feel confident that they will get US backing for their demand to halt the construction of the fence, and hope that Bush will pressure Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on the issue during his visit to the White House at the end of the month.

"The fence is a one-sided border... If it would run along the Green Line we would be silent about it, but Israel is building it inside the West Bank, confiscating Palestinian lands", Hourani maintained.

Abbas will also present information on Israeli settlement construction and urge the US to pressure Israel to start dismantling illegal outposts and freeze all settlement activities as stated in the roadmap, Palestinian Information Minister Nabil Amr said.

Abbas will ask Bush to convince Israel to release thousands of prisoners, ease living conditions for the Palestinian population, remove roadblocks and continue to withdraw from Palestinian cities, he added.

A Fatah source said if the Israeli cabinet agrees to include some 80- 100 prisoners from Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the prisoner exchange, it would help Abbas gain some support among Palestinians. He said Palestinians were waiting to see what will come out of Sharon´s visit to the White House at the end of the month, and that if there are no tangible gains for the Palestinians from Abbas´ and Sharon´s meetings with Bush, Abbas will most likely lose the confidence of Palestinian legislators and his government will fall.

Abbas told the Palestinian Al Quds newspaper that he would also discuss with Bush the future borders between a Palestinian state and Israel, and demonstrate to the US administration that the PA is "only asking for 25% of historic Palestine".

Abbas said he would also ask the Americans for financial aid to the PA.

To get US financial help he will have to convince the administration that the money will be under the control of Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, a former IMF official who has the confidence of the US and Europe.

Fayyad, Security Minister Mohammad Dahlan, Legislative Council Speaker Ahmed Qurei and Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath are accompanying Abbas on his US visit.

Palestinian officials have said they need some $100 million for the reconstruction of the PA´s police and security services. Dahlan has said he needs at least $40-50 million and equipment to build an efficient force that can implement the roadmap.

Abbas will have to explain to the US administration why he is not taking more steps to dismantle the terror infrastructure as stipulated in the road map. Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice on Wednesday that Abbas remains unwilling to crack down on militants and dismantle the terror network.

Abbas repeated on Tuesday that there was no way he will crack down on militants. "It´s either civil war or the hudna... if we would go for civil war and assuming we would win, there would still not be security and calm for a long time to come," PA Information Minister Nabil Amr told the ´Post. That, he added, is the message Abbas will pass on to Bush. "Now there is a hudna and now that there is 90% less violence, why should we focus on the 10% bad instead of the 90% improvement?"

Amr and other officials said the PA could not disarm militants since that would destroy the hudna. Instead they will try to convince the militants to extend the three-month ceasefire.

Concerning other security measures, such as preventing the smuggling of weapons into the PA or preventing militants from manufacturing rockets and explosives, a Fatah source said Abbas could only take actions once Israel gives him something to show the people that the road map has benefits for them and improves their lives, otherwise he will face resistance from the people.

The source said that the PA has started to take some measures to prevent the smuggling of weapons, fearing that these weapons might be used against them if and when the PA takes measures against militants.

Abbas will also again urge the Americans to convince Israel to lift the siege around PA Chairman Yasser Arafat. Abbas aides said the siege was strengthening Arafat and giving him no incentive to help Abbas control militants. They said that once Arafat was free to move he would no longer be the underdog in the eyes of the Palestinians and could be convinced to use his influence to rein in militants.

Sharon to focus on dismantling terror infrastructure

Buried in an innocuous communique that the Prime Minister´s Office issued following Sunday´s meeting between Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas is a paragraph framing the message Sharon will take to Washington Sunday.

"Prime Minister Sharon asked his Palestinian counterpart to take immediate and definite action to dismantle the terror organizations and added that once this has been done, Israel´s ability to answer the needs of the Palestinians will be significantly increased."

The rest is commentary.

When US Secretary of State Colin Powell asks Sharon for more action on removing illegal settlements, Sharon will say, ´Let´s see the Palestinians start dismantling the terror organizations."

When National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice asks Sharon for more prisoner releases, Sharon will say "Let´s see the Palestinians start dismantling the terror organizations.

And when President George W. Bush asks Sharon to reconsider building the security fence, Sharon will say "Let´s see the Palestinians start dismantling the terror organizations."

The Prime Minister´s Office is bracing for some hard drilling from Bush when they meet on Tuesday -- especially since the meeting comes after Abbas will have met Bush -- and is not underestimating the impact Abbas will likely have on his interlocutors.

They remember that Rice met Abbas last month in Jericho, got an earful about the fence, and then surprised Sharon and a number of his cabinet minister´s by voicing opposition to the barrier. Government officials, when asked about her opposition, explained that she was under the influence of Abbas´s prior arguments. This same dynamic may work on Bush.

Sharon is going to Washington well aware that Abbas will be playing his "weakness" card. Abbas will tell Bush in his meeting Friday that he needs more concessions to bolster his position on the Palestinian street, and that without these concessions his government may well fall. Israel´s fear is that in Washington, Abbas´ weakness may paradoxically be his strength.

PA Information Minster Nabil Amr gave all a preview of what is likely to come when he told reporters Wednesday that "if there is no progress in this important visit to Washington, we can be sure that Prime Minister Abbas will face a tough situation among the Palestinian people and the Legislative Council. He will have to inform the Legislative Council of his achievements on the political level, but until now we don´t have significant results to convince the parliament that we have succeeded in our mission."

Sharon´s reply to Abbas´ protestations of weakness will be simple, and essentially drawn from the press communique Israel will give more, if Abbas does more.

Sharon will tell the Administration that Israel appreciates that Palestinian incitement has decreased, and that the PA is taking action to prevent terrorist activity. But, he will add, the PA is not going after the Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure, and as a result these organizations are re-grouping to fight another day.

On the prisoner issue, Sharon will remind the Administration this is a unilateral step taken by Israel, independent of the roadmap, and for the express purpose of strengthening Abbas. But since Israel has no obligation under the road map to take this step, no one can come afterward and say Israel is not releasing enough prisoners.

He will also say that as important an issue as the prisoner release is for the Palestinians, it is also very sensitive emotionally and politically -- for Israelis. As an example of the political sensitivity, Sharon will point out that the whole issue of releasing Hamas and Islamic Jihad prisoners was thrown back into the cabinet Wednesday, partly because the government is unsure whether their release is something that will fly with the Israeli public.

And then there is the security fence, which the Palestinians will be referring to in Washington as the Wall, something akin to the Berlin Wall. Sharon will repeat his line that this is a security barrier, not a political one an argument Rice already told Sharon is not something which resonates in Washington.

The fence, Sharon will then likely argue, was not something Israel wanted to put it but something the Palestinians forced Israel to put up.

Up until three years ago there was little Israeli public support for such an intrusive barrier, until Palestinian terrorists started blowing up buses every Monday and Thursday. Then there was a public outcry for the fence in order to make it more difficult for the suicide bombers to kill Israelis.

Both the fence and the prisoners, however, will be tied to the PA´s move against Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Diplomatic sources said Sharon will make clear it will be easier to release more prisoners if the PA dismantles the terror organizations and ensures there is no terror infrastructure to absorb the prisoners even if they want to return to terror.

And as far as the as the fence is concerned, the delay in building it has bought Sharon some flexibility. What has been constructed will not be taken down, but Sharon will likely hint Israel will weigh where to continue constructing depending on what action the PA takes against the Hamas and Islamic Jihad. There will, after all, be less of a security reason for the fence if these organizations really are dismantled. (© 1995-2003, The Jerusalem Post 07/24/03)