The head of Military Intelligence, Major General Aharon Ze´evi (Farkash), told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee yesterday that it is highly unlikely for Iraq to launch a non- conventional weapon attack against Israel prior to an American offensive as this would expose capabilities that Iraq has vehemently denied. It would also rebound on Iraq´s diplomatic front.

The intelligence chief noted that in 1991, prior to the Gulf War, Iraq directly threatened to attack Israel, while today it is issuing more general statements about mounting a counterattack against any source of aggression.

Ze´evi said that he expects the U.S. offensive against Iraq to take place after January 27, 2003, the date that United Nations inspectors in Iraq are due to report their findings to the Security Council.

With regard to the Hezbollah, Ze´evi told the Knesset committee that he expects the militant Lebanese organization to keep a low profile during a U.S.-led war in Iraq, fearing that Israel might exploit the opportunity to attack Hezbollah rocket and missile positions in southern Lebanon.

On the Palestinian front, Ze´evi said that terror organizations are continuing their efforts to carry out attacks and that Israeli security forces are successfully thwarting terror attacks on a daily basis. He added that Al-Qaeda is trying to establish cells in the Palestinian Authority and Arab countries.

In response to a query from MK Haim Ramon (Labor) about the regional implications of an Iraqi war, Ze´evi said that army´s assessment is that a successful U.S.-led campaign in Iraq would make it easier to resume negotiations with the Palestinians, because it would strengthen pragmatic elements in the Arab world against fundamentalists.

´Road map´ gets tougher on PA

Ze´evi revealed that the Bush administration agreed to some of Israel´s requests for revisions in the "road map" for a Palestinian- Israeli accord, including making the resumption of negotiations conditional on a complete cessation of violence and changes in the PA´s leadership.

[The Associated Press reported yesterday that the latest draft adds the word "unconditional" to the requirement that Palestinians must "immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of violence."]

In addition, Ze´evi said, the revised road map stipulates that these obligations must be met by the Palestinians before Israel is obliged to freeze settlement activity. The call for Israel to stop carrying out targeted assassinations in the territories was also left out of the latest draft of the road map, he added.

Several opposition MKs criticized the government for fostering an atmosphere of panic about the anticipated war in Iraq. MK Ramon charged that political motives are stoking this war fever. He said that it is clear that the chance of an Iraqi attack against Israel is very low, almost non-existent.

Ramon also spoke out against the reports that the government is preparing to administer smallpox vaccines to the entire population. "I want to point out that this vaccination is not a sugar candy. Two out of every million will die from the vaccination while five to eight will remain disabled for life."

MK Avraham Shochat (Labor) added that "Sharon is playacting and making the entire country panic in order to divert attention from the corruption scandals in the Likud." (© Copyright 2002 Ha´aretz 12/25/02)