In sharp contrast to recent polls, a survey by the University of Haifa has revealed that nearly 71 percent of Arabs eligible to vote intend to exercise their democratic right in the upcoming Knesset elections.

The latest research, by the university´s Prof. Sammy Smooha and Dr. As´ad Ghanem with the institutes for Israel Democracy, Jerusalem, and for the Promotion of Democracy in the Arab Minority, also found that 91.6% of those interviewed favored increased participation of Arabs in the elections.

The survey was conducted among 700 people during the months of October and November. The margin of error is 3.7%.

Other polls in the past few months had shown a marked apathy towards the elections by the Arab electorate and indicated that the voter turnout would be less than 60 per cent. The findings of the University of Haifa survey are almost exactly the opposite -- showing that interest in the elections is high, despite reported disappointment among Arab voters with the lack of accomplishment of Arab MKs.

According to the findings, had elections been held at the time of the survey, Jewish parties would altogether have received around a quarter of the Arab vote Labor 12%, Meretz 8.5%, and 4.5% for the Likud the equivalent of three Knesset seats. The vote for the Arab parties would have been 29.9% for Hadash´s joint list with MK Ahmed Tibi, 21.1% for the United Arab List (UAL), and 19.1% for the Balad party headed by MK Azmi Bishara. On this basis, Hadash would be the biggest party with four Knesset seats, compared to three in the 1999 elections, while the UAL would drop from five to three and Balad would retain its two seats. Overall the Arab parties would lose one seat, down from 10 to nine, compared to their representation in the outgoing Knesset.

The university survey also found that the trend towards "Palestinization" among Israeli Arabs has stopped, apparently due to disappointment over the current violence.

This was highlighted in a question on how Israeli Arabs defined their identity. Smooha noted that in 1995, some 53.6% had described themselves as Israeli Arabs and not Palestinians. This dropped to 35.8% in 1999 and 34.2% in 2001.

The latest survey found that 44.7% defined themselves as Israeli Arabs and not Palestinians, despite ongoing dissatisfaction with government policies towards the Arab community since the government of the late prime minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Some 84.6% of the interviewees said the government headed by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon treated Arabs as second class citizens at best.

The full findings of the survey are to be unveiled at a conference at the University of Haifa on Thursday on "The Future of the Political Representation of the Arab Minority in Israel." (© 1995-2002, The Jerusalem Post 12/18/02)