Beware of Conventional Wisdom About Iran (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Jonathan S. Tobin 08/19/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/08/19/beware-of-conventional-wisdom-about-iran-nuclear-israel-attack/
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As Israelis and their government continue to debate the merits of an
attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the contempt for American
foreign policy realists for the idea the Jewish state might decide to
act in its own defense is considerable. Contempt for Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak seems to be the
primary motivation for the latest missive for James Traub, one of the
realists leading writers, that appeared in Foreign Policy on Friday.
Rather the focus on the “zone of immunity” that many Israelis and
others worried about the nuclear threat believe Iran may be entering
as its stockpiles get larger and are stored in invulnerable bunkers,
Traub is more interested in what he calls, as the title of the piece
puts it, the “zone of insanity.” As far as he is concerned Netanyahu
and Barak are nuts to even think about acting without the permission
of the United States.
But the answer to Traub’s points comes in his own column. Even the
Obama administration now understands diplomacy and sanctions have
failed. The only possible diplomatic solution is to agree to a
compromise lauded by Traub that would leave Iran’s nuclear project
intact. Under these circumstances, it is fair to ask who’s insane:
The foreign policy realists who have been wrong about just about
everything about the Middle East for decades and who now expect
Israel to wait patiently for Iran to go nuclear or Netanyahu, who
understands all too well that the Israel-hating ayatollahs mean what
they say about eliminating Israel. If these purveyors of conventional
wisdom are now counseling further inaction or more feckless
diplomacy, that’s good reason for Israelis to think hard and long
about attacking Iran soon.
Traub believes, not without reason, that the recent flurry of leaks
and open talk of an Israeli attack are motivated by a desire in
Jerusalem to force the hand of the Obama administration. The
president’s current strategy about Iran is to kick the can down the
road until after the November election. If re-elected, he may then
have the “flexibility” to back down from his pledges not to accept
or “contain” a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu may hope the threat of an
Israeli attack may motivate the president to obligate the United
States to use force sooner rather than later as attempts to talk Iran
off the ledge continue to fail.
Realists oppose such red lines. They also dispute the veracity of
recent reports of a new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate revising
previous erroneous rulings about Iran giving up the quest for nuclear
weapons. But if they claim supporters of a tougher policy on Iran
endorse such a conclusion because they want to raise the pressure on
Tehran, those who oppose action are arguing the new NIE is non-
existent because that suits their pre-existing notions about what
should be done. But even Jeffrey Lewis, another realist, wrote in
Foreign Policy two days earlier specifically to cast doubt about the
intelligence about Iran, concedes that there is no doubt the Iranians
have already done work towards nuclear weaponization but claims it’s
merely old news and nothing to get excited about.
Traub, almost in passing, also mocks those who have written about the
depth of the anti-Semitism of the Iranian regime and chortles about
Netanyahu’s endorsement of such columns. But the day Traub’s piece
was published, Iran held its annual Al Quds day in which millions
were turned out to chant “death to Israel” and the country’s leaders
competed with each other as to who would make the most extreme
statements about the elimination of the Jewish state. Iran’s
government, media and religious institutions (all of which are under
the thrall of the ayatollahs) are drenched in Jew-hatred and
routinely spew hateful rhetoric. Iran also is the major sponsor of
terror groups that kill Jews and Israelis whenever they can. Yet
realists seem to think talk about such topics is irrelevant to the
question of allowing Iran to go nuclear or the urgency of acting
before it is too late.
The dangers that an attack on Iran would present to Israel and the
world are real. But having been as wrong about the Palestinians’
desire for peace as they are about Iran’s willingness to back away
from the nuclear abyss, the realists have no credibility to bring
into this argument. Israelis do well to worry about the implications
of acting on their own but Traub’s efforts to minimize the risks of
doing nothing ring hollow in the ears of those tasked with defending
the existence of the Jewish state.
If they are serious about persuading Israel to stand down, realists
like Traub would do better to pressure President Obama to start
acting like he means business about Iran rather than obviously
signaling that he doesn’t. Neither the Iranians nor the Israelis
believe the president wants to do anything but avoid making a
decision on this most dangerous foreign policy dilemma. But until
their minds are changed, Traub’s jibes at Netanyahu will continue to
ring hollow.
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