Israel Wary as Morsi Curtails Egyptian Military´s Power (JINSA) Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs) By Yaakov Lappin 08/15/12)
Source: http://www.jinsa.org/fellowship-program/yaakov-lappin/israel-wary-morsi-curtails-egyptian-militarys-power#.UDB_K6kgeul
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Egypt´s new president, Mohammed Morsi, delivered a severe blow to the
Egyptian military´s political ambitions this week, and sent clear
message to Egypt and beyond: his civilian Islamist government is now
in charge.
Taking advantage of widespread shock in Egypt over the brutal gunning
down of 15 Egyptian soldiers by jihadi terrorists in the Sinai desert
last week, Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood made their move and
eliminated the remnants of the old Mubarak order.
Morsi sacked Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, a towering
figure in Egypt who served in his position for 22 years, as well as
Chief of Staff Gen. Sami Enan. Morsi also fired the heads of the
navy, the air force, and the air defense force.
By doing so, Morsi dealt a severe blow to the Egyptian military´s
quest to retain extensive political power in post-revolution Egypt.
To drive home the point, the Egyptian president cancelled a decree
issued by the military´s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF)
that barred him from dealing with military appointments. No longer
can the SCAF decide what powers an elected Egyptian president wields.
The Egyptian military´s political goals may be in tatters but its
control over large areas of the Egyptian economy remains intact,
however. The military continues to monopolize a broad range of
economic sectors, including manufacturing, management of businesses
(such as gas stations), and is a major property owner. Undoubtedly,
Morsi has set his sights on disbanding the army´s economic empire as
well.
The entire maneuver to depose the military chiefs was, of course,
fully coordinated with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which rushed
to praise Morsi afterwards.
Israel´s Reaction and Peace Treaty Concerns
Officially, Israeli leaders and military officials have remained
silent about the shake-up, thereby maintaining a policy of keeping a
low profile when it comes to internal Egyptian developments. Behind
the scenes, though, the Israeli defense community watched Morsi´s
power play with great surprise, coming as it did in the midst of an
Egyptian military sweep of the Sinai Peninsula. That surprise was
not, however, accompanied by undue anxiety.
Israeli defense sources told me on condition of anonymity - since
they were providing initial assessments - that they do not expect a
unilateral Egyptian review of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty any time
soon, as this would jeopardize badly needed American economic aid to
Egypt. Furthermore, these senior Israelis believe that Morsi
understands that the Egyptian military is dependent on U.S. military
aid.
Recent reports that Morsi is studying whether to amend the Camp David
Accords is understood in Israel to be changes to the treaty to allow
Egypt to insert more counter-terrorism army forces into Sinai. Any
such changes would require Israeli approval, and Jerusalem has
signaled its willingness to approve some extra Egyptian forces as it
has been calling on Egypt to do more to combat global jihadis
operating in Sinai.
Egypt´s New Military Brass
The man Morsi appointed to replace Tantawi, Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-
Sissi, was until now the Egyptian military´s intelligence chief. Al-
Sissi enjoys close ties with Washington.
The new chief of staff is Gen. Sidki Sobhi, previously commander of
the Third Egyptian Army based in Sinai. Troublingly, Sobhi, who
appears often in the Egyptian media, has propagated anti-Israel
conspiracy theories in recent months, accusing Israel of seeking to
create a rift between Sinai Bedouins and the Egyptian state.
All of the new appointments are, like their predecessors, graduates
of a secular military accustomed to the approximately $1.3 billion a
year in American military assistance and to the major systems that
aid has bought and upon which the military depends. These include
American tanks, fighter jets, self-propelled artillery, and other
large weapon systems.
Sinai Flashpoint
A steady concern for the medium-term future is the possibility that
Morsi may order the Egyptian military to turn a blind eye to the
jihadis in Sinai, so long as they focus their attacks on Israeli
targets only, and leave Egyptian targets alone. This tactic would
allow Morsi to cling to the pretense of respecting the peace treaty,
while directing trouble in Israel´s direction.
Should that scenario come to pass, Israel would be forced to
contemplate pinpoint counter-terrorism operations in Sinai itself to
defend its southern border and Eilat. This potential flashpoint would
dramatically raise tensions with Egypt.
Will Economic Woes Dictate Egyptian Foreign Policy?
Israeli defense officials do not think of Morsi as a moderate leader.
They do believe, however, that he will choose to focus his attention
on the most pressing issue currently facing the Egyptian republic: a
severe economic crisis. With tourism at rock bottom and foreign
investment in shambles, the Muslim Brotherhood, which sought power
for so long, must now figure out how to rescue the Egyptian economy.
Some in Israel, such as former National Security Council head Maj.
Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland, have identified counter-intuitive
advantages in the current situation. Eiland says Hamas´s offer to
Egypt to shut down all of its smuggling tunnels, on the condition
that Egypt opens its border crossing with Gaza, is well in line with
Israeli interests.
Should that occur, those accusing Israel of maintaining a blockade on
Gaza will be forced to admit that Gaza enjoys an open border with
Egypt, decreasing diplomatic pressure on Israel, Eiland maintains.
Crucially, however, the question of how Egypt will respond to Hamas´s
attempts to bring in weapons across an open Egyptian border remains
unanswered. Will Egypt allow the arms through, sparking tensions with
Israel, or will it respond to Israeli demands, and American pressure,
to cease the weapons smuggling?
Regional rivalries will also demand Egypt´s attention. Morsi´s newly
empowered Sunni Islamist government views Shi´ite Iran and its quest
for regional hegemony as its top concern, Israeli officials believe.
The Muslim Brotherhood´s Dangerous Ambitions
Taking a longer view of things, one may be less encouraged. The
Muslim Brotherhood has always abided by a patient, gradual game plan,
and has never swerved from its end goal, and that is the creation of
an Islamist fundamentalist state and society.
The plan calls for the seizing of one state institution after
another, from the presidency, to the parliament, to the courts, and
eventually the education system and the media. The Muslim Brotherhood
is intent on creating a state in its own image. In the process, it
has mastered the ability to project an image of pragmatism.
The movement that spawned Morsi has never accepted Israel, and
remains ideologically committed to creating a regional federation of
Islamic states under the banner of a caliphate.
Seeking at all costs to avoid an American decision to cut assistance,
and confronted with an unprecedented economic crisis, Egypt will
continue to respect the peace treaty with Israel, for now.
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