Stymied at U.N., U.S. Refines Plan to Remove Assad (NY) TIMES) By ERIC SCHMITT and HELENE COOPER WASHINGTON 07/22/12)
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/world/middleeast/us-to-focus-on-forcibly-toppling-syrian-government.html?pagewanted=all&gwh=83E5626394531FAF122FD90F4F540F0F
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WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has for now abandoned efforts
for a diplomatic settlement to the conflict in Syria, and instead it
is increasing aid to the rebels and redoubling efforts to rally a
coalition of like-minded countries to forcibly bring down the
government of President Bashar al-Assad, American officials say.
Administration officials have been in talks with officials in Turkey
and Israel over how to manage a Syrian government collapse. Defense
Secretary Leon E. Panetta is headed to Israel in the next several
days to meet with Israeli defense counterparts, following up on a
visit last week by President Obama’s national security adviser Thomas
E. Donilon, in part to discuss the Syrian crisis.
The White House is now holding daily high-level meetings to discuss a
broad range of contingency plans — including safeguarding Syria’s
vast chemical weapons arsenal and sending explicit warnings to both
warring sides to avert mass atrocities — in a sign of the escalating
seriousness of the Syrian crisis following a week of intensified
fighting in Damascus, the capital, and the killing of Mr. Assad’s key
security aides in a bombing attack.
The administration has had regular talks with the Israelis about how
Israel might move to destroy Syrian weapons facilities,
administration officials said. The administration is not advocating
such an attack, the officials said, because of the risk that it would
give Mr. Assad an opportunity to rally support against Israeli
interference.
Administration officials insist they will not provide arms to the
rebel forces. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already financing
those efforts. But American officials said that the United States
would provide more communications training and equipment to help
improve the combat effectiveness of disparate opposition forces in
their widening, sustained fight against Syrian Army troops. It’s also
possible the rebels would receive some intelligence support, the
officials said.
By enhancing the command-and-control of the rebel formations, largely
by improving their ability to communicate with one another and their
superiors and to coordinate combat operations, American officials say
they are seeking to build on and fuel the momentum of the rebels’
recent battlefield successes.
“You’ll notice in the last couple of months, the opposition has been
strengthened,” a senior Obama administration official said
Friday. “Now we’re ready to accelerate that.” The official said that
the hope was that support for the Syrian opposition from the United
States, Arab governments and Turkey would tip the balance in the
conflict.
Senior administration officials say the changes are in response to a
series of setbacks at the United Nations Security Council, where
Russia has staunchly refused to engineer the removal of Mr. Assad, as
well as the turmoil that has left the Syrian government reeling, at
least for the moment.
“We’re looking at the controlled demolition of the Assad regime,”
said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy. “But like any controlled demolition, anything can
go wrong.”
Mr. Obama has come under criticism from some Republican hawks, who
say that the United States should intervene militarily in Syria, and
from the Republican presidential aspirant Mitt Romney, who has said
that he would arm the Syrian opposition — a course which the
administration has not taken.
Instead, Mr. Obama had been backing United Nations efforts, and had
been pushing Russia to join the United States in calling for Mr.
Assad to step down from power. But Russia and China on Thursday
blocked tougher United Nations action in the Security Council. This
prompted Susan E. Rice, the American ambassador to the United
Nations, to say that the Security Council had “utterly failed” Syria
and to pledge that the United States will now instead work “with a
diverse range of partners outside the Security Council” to pressure
the Assad government.
Administration officials said the United States is also working with
Syrian rebels to establish a transition process for the day that Mr.
Assad’s government falls, including trying to set up a provisional
government that would include representatives from opposing Sects —
Alawites, Sunnis and Christians. “We need to make sure that what
comes next has Alawite representation,” one administration official
said Saturday.
Outreach to the Alawite community is crucial if the Syrian state is
to remain intact after Mr. Assad is gone, administration officials
and foreign policy experts said. And it may be necessary to hasten
Mr. Assad’s exit. “The much more urgent challenge,” said Martin S.
Indyk, the former United States ambassador to Israel, “is to make
contact with Assad’s generals to get them to defect with units
intact.”
But as last week’s unexpected turn of events indicate, planning for
the end of the Assad government, which administration officials
insist will happen without saying precisely when, is virtually
impossible. “What is the end? That’s the dilemma,” said one senior
defense official. “No one knows what the end is. So it’s all about
mitigating the risks.”
And the risks are legion.
The escalating violence has so far sent as many as 125,000 people
fleeing across Syria’s border into neighboring Lebanon, Jordan,
Turkey and Iraq, according to the State Department. American
officials are expressing fears that the implosion of the government
could lead to a breakup of Syria, with Mr. Assad’s minority Alawite
sect retreating to coastal mountain redoubts still armed with their
chemical weapons.
“It’s an outcome that contains the seeds of a war that never ends,”
said Robert Malley, Middle East and North Africa program director at
the International Crisis Group. “The rest of Syria won’t accept
having part of their territory under the control of the people who’ve
been oppressing them.”
This month, Syria started moving parts of its huge stockpile of
chemical weapons out of storage, drawing stern warnings from American
officials not to use them or face unstated consequences. Some
American intelligence officials said later that the movements were
most likely a precaution as security conditions across the country
rapidly deteriorated.
“It’s going to take an international effort when Assad falls — and he
will fall — in order to secure these weapons,” Adm. William H.
McRaven, the head of the military’s Special Operations forces, told
Congress in March.
American and other Western intelligence officials have expressed
concern that some of the more than 100 rebel formations fighting
inside Syria may have ties to Al Qaeda that they could exploit as
security worsens in the country or after the collapse of the
government.
“If the Assad regime did fall, this would provide more Islamist
militants with a potential opportunity to establish a new foothold in
the heart of the Middle East,” said Charles Lister, an analyst with
Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “The temporary lack of state
structures would also afford aspirant militant Islamists with a safe
area for training.”
A small number of C.I.A. officers have been operating secretly in
southern Turkey for several weeks, helping allies decide which Syrian
opposition fighters across the border will receive weapons to fight
the government.
The C.I.A. effort is aimed in part to help keep weapons out of the
hands of fighters allied with Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups, one
senior American official said. By helping to vet rebel groups,
American intelligence operatives in Turkey also hope to learn more
about a growing, changing opposition network inside of Syria and to
establish new ties to fighters who may be the country’s leaders one
day.
American diplomats are also meeting regularly with representatives of
various Syrian opposition groups outside the country to help map out
a possible post-Assad government.
“Our focus with the opposition is on working with them so that they
have a political transition in place to stand up a new Syria,”
Patrick Ventrell, a State Department spokesman, said last week.
(Copyright 2012 The New York Times Company 07/22/12)
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