The Region: My message to the Iraqis (JERUSALEM POST OP-ED) By BARRY RUBIN 07/09/12)
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In the new Middle East where people talk a lot behind the scenes
using the new high-technology communications, we have far more
frequent interactions with people who live in countries ostensibly at
war with Israel. Such conversations are always interesting and useful
Sometimes the exchanges are even happening in public. I’ve been
interviewed a number of times, for example, by Iraqi journalists. But
this time there was a different kind of question at the end of the
interview. In the last query, the journalist asked what message I had
for Iraq’s people.
For a moment, I was speechless. I’ve been waiting more than 30 years
for that kind of opportunity. What should I say that wasn’t just
special pleading or an obvious exercise in hasbara (public
BUT LET me start at the beginning. Not long ago I wrote that Iraq
might be the best model realistically available right now for the
Arabic- speaking world. Iraq dropped out of the seemingly endless and
futile race by countries to conquer the region; moved away from
radical and disastrous ideology; developed a measure of democracy,
pluralism and federalism; defeated an internal terrorist insurgency
that was being helped by its neighbors; and seemed to be pursuing a
Unfortunately, though, there has been steady deterioration. Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki is grabbing for supreme power; Vice
President Tariq al-Hashimi has fled, pursued by Maliki’s charges of
President Jalal Talabani was thrust into the middle. What’s important
to keep in mind is that the first man is a Shia Arab, the second is a
Sunni Arab and the third is a Kurd.
So while these are personal rivalries – not everyone lines up neatly
along sectarian or ethnic lines – such disputes also represent
communal rifts and could reignite a bloody civil war in Iraq. This is
Then there’s the perennial question of how much influence does Iran
have in Iraq? Less than one might expect on the national level, I’d
say, but still some real behind- the- scenes power in southern Iraq.
Iran can interfere in the country with relative ease.
Tehran has apparently instructed its Shia Iraqi assets to support the
current government and not make trouble. So the threat is not high at
this point. Still, the Baghdad government is going to be careful to
stay on good terms with Tehran. At the same time, though, Iraq’s
leaders have no desire to be Iran’s clients, despite some of them
having such close ties during the Saddam Hussein era. And so the
whole sad tragedy may be starting again.
As Michael Corleoni said, “Just when I thought I was out... they pull
me back in.”
WHAT ARE the diseases of the Middle East that refuse to go away? •
The belief that certain countries – nowadays mainly Egypt, Iran, and
Turkey – think they can dominate the whole region and are willing to
sacrifice blood and treasure to do so.
• Instead of fixing problems, hate is focused on scapegoats.
• The assumption that one ideology – formerly Arab nationalism, now
Islamism – can conquer everyone and everywhere.
• The conclusion that one can only be a leader by being a dictator.
• The rejection of pluralism, freedom, pragmatism and the emphasis on
political power maneuvers over socio-economic development.
Whatever its shortcomings, Europe overcame these maladies. Many in
Asia are doing so, as are some leaders and countries elsewhere. In
the Middle East, though, while there are hints of enlightenment,
outside of Israel it cannot really be found enthroned elsewhere.
Turkey, which long seemed immunized to the Middle East malady, has
leaped back into the swamp. Lebanon has long since done so. Morocco
and Jordan linger on the brink. The Iraqi Kurds are – temporarily? –
on dry land.
And so that was the theme of my message to Iraqis: Does it make sense
to plunge back into conflict at a moment when the region is
descending toward an international struggle between Sunni and Shia
blocs that will last decades? No country can suffer more from that
battle than Iraq.
At a time when revolutionary Islamism is adding additional bloodshed
and misery for millions, is this the direction Iraq wants to go?
After sacrificing so much of its wealth to no less than three
avoidable wars – Iran-Iraq (1980-1988), Kuwait (1990-1991), a war
provoked by Saddam Hussein’s breaking sanctions (2003) – followed by
a horrible civil war, isn’t that enough? Are Iraq and the Middle East
really doomed to plunge into another 60 years of horror? Who is going
to try to remain outside this fray?
UNFORTUNATELY, THE West is not going to save you from this and
America, at least under its current leadership, won’t help you. On
the contrary, the Obama administration is rewarding the radicals,
pushing the Islamists, and neglecting its friends. People in the
region are well aware of this reality; Western “experts” and
governments are not.
Several people lately have asked me what I think of Israel’s future.
My answer is that I’m extremely optimistic. But as for everything
else for a thousand miles or so in every direction, things look grim.
Please wake up and don’t do it all over again.
This is your chance to escape from the waterboarding of history, from
the grim cycle of war, hatred and death. Choose life, democracy,
moderation, pragmatism and prosperity.
But I know that plea probably won’t work. I feel a grim sense that
the watchword of the day is: Here we go again.
The writer is the director of Global Research in International
Affairs (GLORIA) Center. He also publishes the Rubin Report blog and
is the author of Israel: An Introduction. (© 1995-2011, The Jerusalem
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