WJC ANALYSIS - Egypt’s presidential election and the repercussions for the Middle East (WJC) WORLD JEWISH CONGRESS) By Pinhas Inbari 06/25/12)
Source: http://www.worldjewishcongress.org/en/news/11983/wjc_analysis_egypt_s_presidential_election_and_the_repercussions_for_the_middle_east_
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The official announcement of Mohammad Mursi as the winner in Egypt’s
presidential election is unlikely to put an end to the country’s
internal crisis or to the sharp split among the Egyptian people
between the Islamists, represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, and the
secularists, represented by the Supreme Council of the Allied Forces.
The SCAF was quick to amend the constitutional law ahead of the
election in a way that would make it impossible for the country to
resume stable governance for a long while, leaving the SCAF as the
real ruler of Egypt for the foreseeable future. This move made it
clear to the Muslim Brotherhood that its expectation of power-sharing
with the SCAF, as was understood prior to the presidential race, was
rejected even before an official offer could be made.
The reopened rift between the Brotherhood and the SCAF translated to
their Palestinian neighbors, where the gap between Gaza and Ramallah
immediately widened.
Ramallah is linked to the SCAF´s anti-Muslim Brotherhood axis, while
Hamas is strongly affiliated with the Islamist axis and has offered
to support the Muslim Brotherhood not only politically but also
through armed resistance. The PLO, on the other hand, used the time
to mock the Brotherhood’s candidate Mursi by calling him "Mursi with
no chair".
Further to Hamas’ departure from Damascus, the organization’s
politburo discussed the possibility of joining the Muslim Brotherhood
Shura in Cairo. The Brotherhood conditioned its acceptance on the
politburo’s renunciation of its "resistance" character and conversion
to a political party during the period when the Brotherhood believed
it could overtake Egypt through the ballot box. Hamas, in turn,
offered to be considered as the military wing of the Brotherhood but
was denied.
However, further to the SCAF ‘s "constitutional coup", the Muslim
Brotherhood may have gone back on its policy and de facto accepted
Hamas’ earlier offer. Egyptian media reported that Hamas was involved
in planning to commit terror operations in Egypt during the electoral
campaign.
Even as the voters were going to the polls, Gaza-inspired militants
launched missile attacks from Sinai into Israel, followed by another
volley from Gaza itself. Hamas quickly took formal responsibility for
the launch after a prolonged period of silence regarding its
involvement in the attacks. The timing of the rocket fire was a
signal from the Muslim Brotherhood to the SCAF which clearly
indicated it could counter the power of the latter with its own
militia.
The Muslim Brotherhood may decide to follow Hamas’ example by forming
a body similar to the Al-Qassam Brigades or the Iranian example of
the Al-Quds Brigades and the Pasdaran, in addition to its presence in
parliament and the government. In either case, heating up the
temperatures along the Sinai border will complicate relations between
Israel and the SCAF and foil cooperation between the two against
Gaza, while increasing the Brotherhood’s popularity on the street.
The regime in Ramallah, on the other hand, was one of the only
governments left standing after the events of the Arab Spring,
including Jordan, the Gulf States, and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s
Prince Salman, who has been named as successor to the ailing Prince
Abdullah, ordered the University of Medina to recognize Hamas after
the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo refused to recognize Sheikh Yasseen,
while he served as the governor of the holy city in the 1980s.
The prince hoped that that militant Islamic movement would join the
ranks of the Sunni Mujahedeen, but instead, it turned toward Shiite
Iran. As a result, the future leader of the oil-producing giant has a
score to settle with Hamas and is naturally inclined to support
Ramallah against it.
Photo: A Hamas sign that illustrates the point (“Gaza: Between
escalation and the new situation in Egypt”)
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