The world’s hopes pinned on ... Turkey (NEW YORK POST OP-ED) Benny Avni 06/26/12)
Source: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/the_world_hopes_pinned_on_turkey_bM8UABEvmd3b4JgyRm4hrI
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Syria’s downing of a Turkish plane on Friday may present the perfect
opportunity for intervention in the bleeding country. Now it’s all up
to the leader of the free world.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that
is.
With America unwilling to lead, the Turkish prime minister
represents
the last hope for the Syrians begging honorable outsiders to help
them overthrow butchering despot Bashar al-Assad.
But not so
fast. For now, Erdogan is receiving world-wide kudos from
the usual suspects (the United Nations, Russia, China, NATO leaders)
for his restraint in the face of provocation. As far as he can read
America’s confusing signals (we’re outraged; we still support the
hopeless Annan plan), Washington too wants him to stay above the
Syrian fray.
Meanwhile, Ankara has asked NATO to discuss Syria’s
shootdown of its
unarmed F-4 Phantom jet; the alliance will meet for consultation in
Brussels today. By appealing to NATO, Erdogan is basically asking the
allies to restrain him. (This fits his usual response to perceived
slaps in the face — namely, to strongly demand an apology.)
But
domestic pressure back home may force him to flex more muscle
after all.
Accounts of the incident vary: Syria says the
Turkish aircraft was
above its territorial waters when it was downed; Turkey insists that,
although the plane briefly entered Syrian airspace, the attack came
outside it.
Then there’s the whodunit. Damascus claims that,
while it was its
right to shoot the plane, the incident was a “mistake”; we’re to
believe that an air-defense unit acted on its own.
But many in
the region are sure that Assad or one of his top
commanders decided to send a message to Ankara. Or perhaps the
Iranians (who’ve reportedly sent elite units to Syria) did it to
settle scores with Erdogan. Or a rogue rebel did it, to provoke
Turkey. Plus there are the usual “reports” that the evil Mossad is
behind it all.
And how about Russia? Moscow officials indicated
in Russian press
reports that the Turkish plane was flying in the area to test Syria’s
air defenses, which Russia has modernized in recent years. Did Moscow
order the downing to deter Turkey (or any other outsider) from
harboring any funny ideas?
No matter: Now all eyes are on
Erdogan.
On one side is President Obama. The last thing he
needs right now is
a NATO ally (and Erdogan is also a personal friend and adviser)
invoking the alliance’s one-for-all-and-all-for-one
credo.
Hoping that the Syrian mess would somehow clean itself
up, Washington
has long ceded leadership over it to Ankara. Here’s a Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton tweet on Sunday: “Turkey has been a leader in
the international community’s effort to address Syrian regime’s
violence.”
Turkey, once an Assad ally, does have more immediate
concerns than we
do in this fight: Itsborder with Syria is 565 miles long, and 30,000
refugees from the Syrian bloodbath are flooding the country, living
in ever-growing Turkish-built camps near the border.
Worse:
Assad now is attempting to renew his father’s old alliances
with anti-Ankara Kurds, threatening to use them to unleash new rounds
of terror against Turks.
So unless the violence somehow ends in
Syria (very unlikely), Turkey
may need to intervene sooner or later, regardless of our
pressure.
But perhaps not yet.
Yesterday, Turkey sent
letters to the United Nations, indicating that
it may, for now, opt for meaningless condemnation. Today’s NATO
meeting may be more serious, but the alliance’s leaders have already
publicly cautioned against any military response.
On the other
hand, the two F-4 pilots are, as yet, missing. If
they’re found dead, Turkish public anger will rise even further,
demanding more than words to avenge Syria’s cowardly attack. And
later yesterday Turkey said a second plane had been shot at, shortly
after the F-4 downing.
The mercurial Erdogan, then, is now the
man. It’s up to him to decide
between the West’s inaction, his own public’s ire and the Syrian
people’s screams of pain. All turn their lonely eyes to him. Where
have you gone, Joe DiMaggio? (Yes, that used to be us.)
Twitter:
@bennyavni (Copyright 2012 NYP Holdings, Inc. 06/26/12)
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