Can Obama Resist the Morsi Temptation? (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Jonathan S. Tobin 06/25/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/06/25/can-obama-resist-the-mohammed-morsi-temptation-egypt-presidency/
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The victory of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi in the
Egyptian presidential election has presented the United States with
an interesting dilemma. After more than a year of vacillating between
support for democratic change in the Arab world and a willingness to
leave authoritarians in place, Morsi’s triumph represents what many
in the Obama administration may think is a fresh opportunity to have
an impact on the changing situation in the Middle East. They need to
resist it.
As Jackson Diehl noted in today’s Washington Post, President Obama
has much to answer for in the way his waffling between support for
democracy and authoritarians contributed to the way the Arab Spring
became a disaster for both the peoples of the Middle East and the
United States: Though it is not likely that his enormous self-regard
will allow him to accept that blame, there’s little doubt that the
president wants very much to have an impact on events in Egypt and
throughout the region even if he prefers to “lead from behind” in the
tricky conflicts within each nation. It should be remembered that in
May of 2011 he devoted most of a speech on the Middle East policy to
his views on the Arab Spring, though it is best remembered for the
closing section in which he ambushed Israel. The Arab world cared
little for the president’s ineffectual and ultimately irrelevant
views about their future, but what is most worrisome about the
current situation is that the president may view Morsi’s election as
a second chance to influence events in Egypt.
It was perhaps inevitable and perhaps even necessary for the United
States to send its official congratulations to Morsi, but what
follows now will be crucial to America’s chances of at least not
worsening the situation in Egypt. But that is exactly what the
president will do if he begins to act as if Morsi and the Brotherhood
represent democratic legitimacy while the Egyptian army — their
opponents in the struggle for power in Cairo — is a symbol of
authoritarianism. Though the United States has good reason to think
ill of the army’s strong-arm tactics and ought not to let itself be
tainted by openly supporting these holdovers from the Mubarak era, it
would be an even bigger mistake to act as if the Brotherhood is
synonymous with democracy.
As the Bush administration learned when it attempted to foster
Palestinian democracy, elections are meaningless if the only choices
are corrupt authoritarians and Islamists. That is just as true today
in Egypt when it comes to the military and the Muslim Brotherhood as
it was for the Palestinians when their options were Fatah and Hamas.
When those opposed to democracy win elections, the result is not
democracy.
While the attempt to market the Brotherhood as moderates is meeting
with some resistance in the West, it will be just as important for
the administration not to get tricked into viewing Morsi as a free
agent who can be peeled away from his party, as today’s New York
Times dispatch from Cairo hinted. Morsi’s resignation from the group
yesterday is meaningless. Any American wooing of this ideologue will
only give his party undeserved credibility and make it even harder
for either the military or the small groups of genuine Egyptian
liberals to resist the Brotherhood’s first attempts to remake the
nation in their own image.
The most dangerous aspect of this situation is the way a desire to
entice Morsi to play ball with the West will appeal to President
Obama’s ego. Obama has repeatedly shown he believes the power of his
personality and the historic nature of his presidency can transcend
all sorts of differences. That is why he finds Islamists like Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan so appealing. He flatters himself
that their curious friendship rises above the differences between
American democracy and Erdoğan’s ideology.
Obama may believe he can use the $1 billion in annual U.S. aid to
Egypt to romance Morsi into transforming the Brotherhood into a
peaceful democratic movement, but this is as much of a delusion as
any notion of reforming the army. As badly as the administration has
messed up in the Middle East, the Morsi temptation is an opportunity
for the president to make things a lot worse. Let’s hope his re-
election campaign will act as deterrent to any new overtures to the
Brotherhood.
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