The Egyptian military and security establishment has not been a steady, skilled, or unbiased manager of the political process in the almost year and a half of post revolutionary ups and downs the country has endured. Its manoeuvring on the eve of the second round of voting in the presidential election risks creating fresh confrontations and uncertainties.

Whether or not it is the case, few in Egypt seem to believe that the decisions to dissolve parliament and to give the police and armed forces wide-ranging powers of arrest are unrelated, or that they just happened in the normal course of the supreme constitutional court´s deliberations or the defence ministry´s planning processes. Coupled with the rigging which marked the first round of voting, and which is unlikely to be abandoned in the second, they point, many say, to a deliberate orchestration. It seems designed not only to ensure a victory for Ahmed Shafiq, the old regime´s presidential candidate, but to undercut the power of the Muslim Brotherhood in the other institutions of the state, and to further marginalise the liberal and secular forces which carried so much of the burden of the revolution.

At the far end of the trajectory there is no doubt a resolution in which the military and the Brotherhood come to terms and Egypt settles down to a new dispensation. In the broadest sense Egypt does indeed need such a settlement. Neither of the two big beasts of Egyptian politics is going to disappear, and an accommodation, which also includes a strong role for liberal parties, is desirable. But not like this. For one thing the Brotherhood, after initial confusion, has now thrown down its own gauntlet. Mohamed Morsi, their candidate, has said that foul play in the voting will be followed by massive revolt.

This is an indication that the Brotherhood will not accept a Shafiq victory, even if, as is not impossible, such a victory were to be genuine. Morsi has also said that he does not accept the dissolution of parliament. Whether he is serious about revolt is something that events will test. The Brotherhood has changed its mind before and it has always appeared possible that they and the army would avoid real confrontation and do a deal. Indeed, that has been the liberal fear, that the revolution would be squeezed to death between two boulders. The Brotherhood is itself divided, and how this week´s decisions will affect the balance in the movement is another imponderable. If it was already the case before these events that there was trouble ahead for Egypt whoever is elected, then what has happened this week, whether it was plot, coup, or crass mismanagement, has made the situation worse. (guardian.co.uk © Guardian News and Media Limited 2012 06/16/12)