Recipe for War: Unilateral Withdrawal from West Bank (GateStone Institute) by Khaled Abu Toameh 06/08/12)
Source: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3101/unilateral-withdrawal-west-bank
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As before, Hamas´s chances of taking over the West Bank are high
after the failure of Abbas´s ruling Fatah faction to implement
significant reforms or combat rampant corruption.
Israel´s Defense Minister Ehud Barak believes that Israel should
consider a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank if negotiations
with the Palestinian Authority fail to bear fruit.
Under the current circumstances, such a move would lead to the
creation of another radical Palestinian Islamic entity, this time in
those parts of the West Bank that would be handed over to Mahmoud
Abbas and Salam Fayyad.
Any land that is handed over to the Palestinian Authority would end
up in the hands of Hamas.
In the summer of 2005, Israel pulled out of the Gaza Strip, passing
it to Abbas and his 40,000-strong Fatah-dominated security forces.
A few months later, thanks to a free and fair parliamentary election
that was held at the request of the US and some EU countries, Hamas
came to power.
One of the main reasons Hamas scored a victory in that election was
because it took credit for driving Israel out of the Gaza Strip
through rockets and suicide bombings.
A year later, in the summer of 2007, it took fewer than 10,000 Hamas
militiamen to defeat Abbas´s security forces and bring down the
entire Palestinian Authority regime in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas´s rule over the Gaza Strip has since brought more suffering and
bloodshed for both Israelis and Palestinians.
Once Israel carries out a unilateral withdrawal, the same scenario is
likely to be repeated in the West Bank.
Even though Hamas does not have a strong military presence in the
West Bank, the movement seems to enjoy much popularity among
Palestinians.
The so-called Arab Spring, which has seen the rise of Islamists to
power in a number of Arab countries, has emboldened Hamas and other
radical Palestinian groups, such as Islamic Jihad.
These groups have managed to attract many followers by offering
themselves as the best alternative to Western-backed corrupt secular
dictatorships in the Arab world.
As before, Hamas´s chances of taking over the West Bank are high
after the failure of Abbas´s ruling Fatah faction to implement
significant reforms or combat rampant corruption.
Fatah lost the 2006 parliamentary election mainly because of its
leaders´ involvement in the embezzlement of public funds. Since then,
Fatah has failed to draw the conclusions from its defeat and has not
even been able to come up with a new list of capable candidates that
could attract Palestinian voters.
The same Fatah men who lost the vote are, in fact, continuing to run
the show in Ramallah -- as if they had never lost.
Even if the Islamists do not take over the West Bank in the aftermath
of a unilateral Israeli pullout, it is almost certain that the
Palestinian Authority would not be able to prevent local gangs and
clans from seizing power.
The case of Jenin, a city in the West Bank, is a good example of the
weakness of the Palestinian Authority security forces, especially
with regard to imposing law and order: Palestinian Authority
officials have admitted that Jenin has been controlled over the past
two years by Fatah militiamen and thugs who worked closely with many
top Palestinian security officers, imposing a reign of terror and
intimidation on the city´s residents.
A unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank could mean that
Palestinian cities like Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, Bethlehem and Hebron
would fall either into the hands of Hamas or armed Fatah gangs.
Abbas and Fayyad would not be able to do much to prevent a return to
scenes of anarchy and lawlessness that were once prevalent on the
Palestinian street.
The chaos and violence inside the Palestinian cities would also spill
over into Israel, forcing it to launch another "Defensive Shield"
type of operation, like the one in 2002, to clear the area of armed
gangs.
Before withdrawing from any area, Israel needs to make sure that
those who would be in charge would not run away, handing the
territories to Hamas or any other local gangs. Under the current
circumstances, a unilateral and unconditional withdrawal would only
be a recipe for more violence and bloodshed and repression.
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