A calculated Jordanian gamble (ISRAEL HAYOM OP-ED) Alexander Bligh 06/05/12)
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=2006
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The many documents that have been declassified since the Six-Day War —
which began on this date 45 years ago — offer new insight into what
took place on the Jordanian front. In a nutshell (and as detailed in
my book, "The Political Legacy of King Hussein"), the results of the
war demonstrate that Jordan´s participation was part of a calculated
gamble by one of the greatest leaders this region has ever known. As
far as King Hussein was concerned, the West Bank´s population had
become a burden. He had hoped that ongoing contact with Israel — to
the point of maintaining a covert, but genuine, peace — would
guarantee the continued existence of the Hashemite Kingdom, while
effectively transferring responsibility for the Palestinians to
Israel, making it their problem to solve.
In December 1966, King Hussein — who had ascended to the throne in
1953 — concluded that the growing disparities between the eastern
bank of the Jordan River, with its Bedouin and Transjordanian
residents, and the largely Palestinian West Bank were getting
increasingly worse. The latter had become the proxy of Egyptian
President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Syria´s rulers. Under their orders,
Palestinian terrorist cells from Jordan would stage attacks inside
Israel, hoping they would provoke an Israeli retaliation that would
topple the Hashemites, who had become their archenemy.
When Syria and Egypt signed a mutual defense treaty in late 1966,
they said the move was designed facilitate a war with Israel; the
pact´s unstated objective was to topple the Jordanian monarchy and
replace it with a republican regime.
In light of these unfolding regional developments, King Hussein
wisely predicted a large-scale war between the Arab states and Israel
within six months (June 1967) and believed that Israel would capture
of most of the Sinai Peninsula but would not make any territorial
gains on the Syrian front. Most important, he expected Jordan´s West
Bank, in its entirety, to fall into Israeli hands. Such an outcome
would free King Hussein of any responsibility over the welfare of the
Palestinians in these parts, and would make it easier for both Israel
and Jordan to reach mutual understandings that could further develop
their covert relations, in an effort to contend with shared regional
enemies.
The king´s plan succeeded beyond his wildest dreams; in a slow and
prudent diplomatic maneuver, he led Jordanian foreign policy through
successive phases that culminated in the complete and final
disengagement from the West Bank in 1988.
To Jordan´s detriment, it took only four days for Israel to capture
the West Bank, resulting in long-term damage to Hashemite interests:
The king and his family lost Jerusalem to Israel; King Hussein was
denied the foothold he had on the Temple Mount when Defense Minister
Moshe Dayan unilaterally decided to hand over control over to Islamic
forces (although some were pro-Jordanian). This created a void that,
unfortunately for Israel and Jordan, has since been filled by forces
hostile to both nations. The writer is director of The Middle East
Research Center at the Ariel University Center of Samaria.
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