With freshly re-elected Vladimir Putin due in Paris today for a summit with new French President Francois Hollande, the Russian media have been talking up the idea of a new Paris-Moscow axis. In fact, Putin is likely to hear a very different message.

French sources say Hollande has no interest in any “grand gesture,” especially in the face of parliamentary elections that will determine the strength of his hold on power. Instead, he’ll press Putin on Syria.

The new French administration has already sharpened the tone set by former President Nicolas Sarkozy. “Bashar al-Assad is the murderer of his people,” says the new foreign minister, Laurent Fabius. “He should leave power; and the sooner the better.”

Hollande has gone further, stating that “the military option” can’t be ruled out.

And it was his behind-the-scenes lobbying that prompted the major Western powers to expel Syrian diplomats this week — a move followed by 12 other nations, including Japan, Australia and Turkey.

France will also host a Friends of Syria conference in the next few weeks, with representatives of 76 countries, including every member of the Arab League (except Lebanon, with its complex relation with the Syrian regime). The French hope that Russia will join; if it does, China will be knocking on the door for an invitation.

France has also resumed “consultations” with Turkey on future joint moves on Syria, ending a year-long hiatus (prompted by Turkish anger at Sarkozy’s support for a law banning the denial of the Armenian “holocaust”). Fabius thinks Turkey could and should lead international initiatives aimed at Syrian regime change.

One key French demand of Putin: Stop arms shipments to Assad, which violate a UN Security Council resolution passed with support from both Moscow and Beijing.

The French claim to have “a mass of evidence” that Russia has been smuggling arms to Syria via the port of Banias as late as a week ago. Putin may be invited to examine part of the evidence while he’s in Paris.

France also has evidence showing Iran’s “active military presence” on Assad’s side — including a recording of comments by the deputy commander of the Qods Force, Gen. Esmail Qa’ani. (The Qods Force is the special unit that Iran uses for operations in the region, including Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.)

In the recording, Qa’ani talks of “the effective presence of the Qods Force in Syria.”

“Before we deployed to Syria, the opposition was killing many people,” he claims on the recording. “But, thanks to the physical presence of the Islamic Republic forces, such large-scale killings were prevented.”

Also aiding Assad is Venezuela, an ally of Iran — by shipping fuel for the Syrian war machine. On Monday, a Venezuelan tanker delivered supplies of diesel for Assad’s tanks and armored vehicles of the kind used in the recent massacre at Howlah.

The French hope to persuade Putin to reconsider his policy on Syria and help forge an international accord for a peaceful transition in Damascus. The current Kremlin policy puts Russia on the side of a club of rogue powers engaged in massacring the people of Syria.

Yet, despite much optimism in Paris, Hollande’s chances of persuading Putin remain slim.

The Russian has a score to settle with the Sunni Arab powers that, he claims, helped Islamist rebels in Chechnya for more than a decade. He also worries that the loss of Assad, Moscow’s last ally in the Mediterranean, could shut Russia out of a waterway crucial for its position as a maritime power.

Despite all that, the French hope that Assad’s diminishing prospects will persuade the Kremlin to abandon a sinking ship.

“Assad will go,” says Bernard Guetta, a leading French analyst of international affairs. “The international community should work to make sure that happens sooner rather than later.”

In recent days, Russian spokesmen have been harping on a new theme, by which Moscow isn’t backing Assad but merely trying to save international law. That, the French hope, might indicate that Russian backing for Assad may not be as solid as generally assumed. (Copyright 2012 NYP Holdings, Inc. 06/01/12)