Behind Iranian calculations (ISRAEL HAYOM OP-ED) Dan Margalit 05/25/12)
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The next time International Atomic Energy Agency Director General
Yukiya Amano leaves Tehran with an agreement in his hands, he can
borrow an umbrella and a quote from Neville Chamberlain, who in 1938
told the world after meeting with Hitler that he had brought
back "peace in our time."
It´s not as if Iran will let him inspect its nuclear facilities, and
the centrifuges won´t stop spinning. IAEA inspectors will get to see
the secret installation near Qom only after the main activity and
materials produced there will have been transferred and stashed in
another secret nook. The Iranians are world champion confidence
Amano knows. World leaders know. Tehran has lied and cheated too many
times for the world to not understand. Unless, of course, the
democratic West has come to terms with Iran´s nuclear program and has
decided to turn a blind eye.
The five superpowers and the IAEA will likely sign an agreement and
lower Iran´s enriched uranium levels from 20 percent to five percent.
They will also transfer some of the enriched uranium to a storage
facility in Germany. It´s true that this sets Iran´s nuclear program
back somewhat, but it´s not worth the cost of easing the sanctions
imposed against it.
Tehran will continue along its path toward a nuclear weapon, and
Israel will need to stretch its capabilities in order to once again
provide hard evidence of a "smoking gun" — that the Iranian bomb is
being built far away from prying eyes.
And what will the West do? It will do what it did to the North
Koreans, absolutely nothing.
Why is Iran taking the risk?
It´s not just because Europe´s economy is in dire straits and the
United States is preparing for presidential elections. Iran is brazen
because it has identified that democracy has exhausted itself and
people have lost their faith and interest in the system. The defense
of their liberties and culture isn´t as important to them as in the
past, and they aren´t worth sacrificing anything for.
It´s easier to turn the other way. It´s more pleasant to believe that
the problem has been solved. To hope that even if the collapse of the
West is inevitable, it won´t happen in our lifetime — some kind of
thinking akin to "after the flood." It is an expression of indulgence
and focus entirely on individuality.
The Iranian nuclear endeavor is merely the most convenient
battleground (for both sides) in their clash of civilizations, which
Prof. Samuel Huntington envisioned but never got to witness himself.
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