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Negotiations or illusion? (ISRAEL HAYOM OP-ED) Ra´ed Amar 05/21/12)Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1923 Israel Hayom Israel Hayom Articles-Index-TopPublishers-Index-Top
People need to understand that Iran will continue to play games and hoodwink the West, even if it is seemingly involved in talks to resolve the issue of its nuclear weapons program. We must take into consideration that Iran has no plan whatsoever to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Iran´s game is transparent. The Islamic republic is trying to obtain a nuclear weapon; it has never had any other intention, nor does it now.

An Arab leader from the early Islamic period, Muawiyah bin Abi- Sufyan, who was known for his wisdom and political cunning, is believed to have once said: If one hair was the only thing tying me and the people together, it would never tear; if they pull, I will let go; and if they let go, I will pull.

This is precisely the manner in which Iran is dealing with the West (namely the United States and European Union). Iran is schooling them in the art of sophisticated political maneuvering in the Middle East.

The proof of Iran´s drive toward obtaining a nuclear weapon lies in the fact that it has not achieved any tangible results from its actions — yet its acts of defiance against the world continue. Does anyone really believe that Iran would harm its own interests merely for the sake of playing a game or flexing its muscles?

If Iran was truly interested in a nuclear program for civilian purposes, why has it engaged in such manipulations until now? Moreover, how can we believe Iran wants a civilian nuclear program when it has an abundance of oil, gas and other energy resources? Are we sincerely to believe that Iran´s goal is medical research?

Only a serious threat to Iran´s regime and to its nuclear program will push it off course, and only for a limited time. Only significant physical damage to its nuclear installations or to the current regime will have a long-term impact.

For Iran, only the stick is effective when it comes to the carrot-and- stick approach. The carrot being offered to Iran — namely help in creating civilian nuclear plants — only encourages Iran to continue mocking Western powers.

Moreover, it is highly unlikely that Iran will agree to transfer the uranium it has enriched to levels of 20 percent out of the country. The only way Iran would suddenly agree to such an arrangement is if it has other secret stockpiles, or if it is financially strapped. But this too would be a temporary ploy to buy more time.

Hopefully the West´s diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons will succeed, but it is reasonable to expect they will fail. Why? Because there is a huge gap between Iran´s great desire to obtain a nuclear weapon at any cost and the West´s hopes it will be satisfied with a civilian program. An Iranian civilian nuclear program would merely provide a fig leaf for a military nuclear program.

That is why Iran will not allow inspectors to visit its facilities. It will continue efforts to buy time and negotiate with the West, while trying to find ways to advance its nuclear weapons program.

The most disconcerting aspect of this situation is that if Western powers fear Iran´s response — and are wiling to offer it a deal — even before Iran has attained a nuclear weapon, what will happen, God forbid, after it does? (Copyright © 2012 FrontPageMagazine.com 05/22/12)


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