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The scent of revolt is in the air in Jordan / Small protests around Jordan could be a sign that a Jordanian Spring is still to come (HA´ARETZ NEWS) By Zvi Bar´el 05/16/12)Source: http://www.haaretz.com/news/features/the-scent-of-revolt-is-in-the-air-in-jordan.premium-1.430737 HA'ARETZ} NEWS SERVICE HA'ARETZ} NEWS SERVICE Articles-Index-TopPublishers-Index-Top
"Fayez, Fayez, bye-bye, go with [Lebanese leader] Aoun to The Hague," "Neither Fayez nor anyone else - only the people will decide its fate."

These slogans, which rhyme in Arabic, shouted by more than a thousand people on Friday at a demonstration in Jordan, were ostensibly aimed at the country´s new prime minister, Fayez al-Tarawneh, who replaced Awn Shawkat Al-Khasawneh (formerly a judge on the International Court of Justice in The Hague ). But the real target of the voices of protest was Jordanian King Abdullah´s kingdom.

Ostensibly, the Arab revolution has skipped over Jordan. The kingdom has not experienced huge demonstrations against the government system, nor have their been massive demonstrations against the king. Though calls have sometimes been heard against Queen Rania or against the corruption that runs deep in the kingdom, "our lord" (sayyidna, as the king is called ) has thus far remained as unscathed as the rest of the rulers of the monarchies in the Middle East.

His Majesty is perhaps unscathed, but the country is seething. On Saturday the head of the small and medium-sized manufacturers´ association, Fathi Jaghbir, said that if the government raises the price of electricity, "We will shut down our factories and hand the keys to the government." According to data he presented, more than 60 percent of the workers in the private sector in Jordan are employed at small and medium-sized factories, where the expenditure on electricity amounts to about 30 percent of the input.

On that same day, across from the royal palace, there was a quiet demonstration by 300 blind people and the people who accompany them, demanding improvement of their conditions and provision of jobs. The government, as usual, promised to discuss their request; but were it not for intervention by the security forces and the dispersal of the demonstrators, who tried to enter the palace grounds, this strike would have gone on for several more days.

Workers´ strikes in the provinces occur nearly all the time. For example the strike by tobacco factory workers who are demanding increased pay and adjustment to inflation (which is estimated at 6 percent annually ), and the administrative workers in the Petra District who want to improve their employment conditions. These are small, local strikes that do not endanger the stability of the regime, at least for now. But "small" strikes that began in Egypt seven years ago, and that eventually swelled into massive strikes, are really what marked the start of the revolution there.

Now, when the atmosphere of revolt is part of the reality that also exists in Jordan, these strikes are liable to snowball. The appointment of new prime ministers - al-Tarawneh is the 10th since King Abdullah ascended the throne in 1999 - has usually served as a nostrum to calm things down.

The term "government of technocrats" is also part of the lexicon King Abdullah has adopted, in order to demonstrate his serious intention to institute reforms of the economy and the regime. However, to his critics, the word "reforms" has become a synonym for the king´s ineffectiveness. In its last report, the World Bank praised the measures the Jordanian government is taking; but it is also demanding that the kingdom implement real reforms, especially deep cuts in the subsidies for fuel and electricity, which are costing the government coffers about $2 billion. It is doubtful the reformist king will accede to this demand, which is liable to increase prices and bring thousands of demonstrators out into the streets. The king tried to cut the subsidies last year, but he immediately changed his mind, especially in light of the fear of the Arab revolution seeping into the kingdom.

Use of the terms "reforms," "technocrats" and "transparency" has ceased to convince people that there is meaning behind them - especially opposition movements, the Islamic bloc and the Muslim Brotherhood - which are demanding with increasing vociferousness fundamental changes not only in the government members, but also in the system of government.

"The gang of the corrupt has taken over the decision-making processes, it has a monopoly on the state´s resources and the national institutions, and every time there is a disagreement it is decided in favor of the security mechanisms," said the sharpest statement issued by the Muslim Brotherhood thus far. The organization is casting blame in particular on "the diplomatic and economic decision in favor of imperialist countries, which has toppled the state into a deficit, ineffectiveness and humiliation." The "decision," of course, is the king´s.

Abdullah´s decision to change the Elections Law in order to enable the election of parties on a political basis, and not purely on a personal basis, now looks like an insufficient cure for the opposition´s complaints. The appointment of a committee to supervise the elections, headed by former Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul Ilah al-Khatib, is also arousing suspicions of "royal supervision" of the elections, which critics say is liable to tip the results.

The Elections Law, which has not yet been approved, has been defined by the Muslim Brotherhood as "a step forward," but too little too late, because it does not include, for example, a redrawing of the electoral districts in a way that would prevent an assured victory for representatives of the Bedouin tribes that support the king. Above all, it is not yet clear when the elections would be held. The king does want to bring them forward but the opposition wants to change the proposed Election Law first.

The most worrisome question at present is the extent to which the king seriously intends to decentralize his power and give more authority to Parliament, allow real political activity and above all, change the face of the kingdom´s economy. Judging by the 13 years of his reign so far, the chances are not great. (© Copyright 2012 Ha´aretz 05/16/12)


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