Kadima Back to the Likud? (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Jonathan Neumann 05/10/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/05/10/kadima-and-likud/
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A day is a long time in politics. In Israel, apparently so are a few
hours. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s new coalition, comprising an
extraordinary 94 MKs (of 120), leaves Israel’s unprecedented election
campaign…unprecedented. Inevitably, the flights of these fowl have
been scrutinized to divine the causes and forecast the effects of
this rather stunning development.
One regrettable feature of the coverage is the tiresome obsession of
the punditocracy with interpreting every move Netanyahu makes as
clearing the path to attack Iran (holding elections makes it easier;
cancelling elections makes it easier). There is more to Israel than
Iran.
Indeed, the new grand-super-uber coalition is a big opportunity for
Netanyahu. He is now the king of Israeli politics (as if he wasn’t
before), and with an irredeemably opportunistic and vacuous Kadima
behind him, he can do great things: the Tal Law, the power of the
rabbinate, the budget deficits, the socio-economic inequality,
electoral reform, the Supreme Court, the basic laws, religion and
state – conversations on each of these were going to take place
during the election campaign. Instead, they can take place within the
government.
But – speculation warning! – there may be an ulterior factor at play
here. And it concerns Kadima, the centrist party founded by Ariel
Sharon and populated mainly by then-Likudniks to implement his
Disengagement Plan back in 2005. A darling of Western liberals, it is
a party born of necessity and lived by opportunism. Indeed, by the
admission of one of its own MKs, whether due to its members or its
centrism, it ‘’has no clear ideology on almost any topic.’’ Such a
faction is a wonderfully malleable addition to any coalition, as far
as any prime minister is concerned.
But Netanyahu may have something else in mind. The rightist factions
in Israeli politics, recognizing their limited success with fringe
parties, have set their eyes on the Likud, looking to increase their
power within that mainstream party. (This has also been going on with
the Arabs and fringe Left in the Labor Party.) Netanyahu knew he
would have to face this Likud Party at the party’s convention before
the general election, and, though his own position was not in doubt,
he was concerned about what sort of list his party would elect for
him to lead to elections and bring to the Knesset. Even on the night
this last minute coalition deal was struck, there was some indication
of this schism: upon being pressed to assert sovereignty over the
Ulpana Hill neighborhood of Bet-El in the West Bank which the Supreme
Court has opposed, he responded that the elections have been
postponed. That is, without impending elections, he has no need to
pander to his more conservative base.
But he knows the time will soon come that he will have to face that
base again. Is it possible he would prefer to do so with the old
Likudniks of Kadima (including Shaul Mofaz) at his side back within
the party? It is obvious why Mofaz wanted to delay elections –
because he and his party would be consigned to the margin. But is it
possible that Netanyahu sees an opportunity to moderate his party by –
in Israeli political parlance – ‘‘bringing home’’ its unfaithful?
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