Goodspeed Analysis: Coalition deal gives Netanyahu options on Palestine, Iran (NATIONAL POST) Peter Goodspeed 05/09/12)
Source: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/05/09/goodspeed-analysis-coalition-deal-gives-netanyahu-options/
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Literally overnight, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has jolted his
government toward the centre of Israeli politics, given himself the
largest ruling coalition in the country’s history and emerged with a
virtually free hand to deal with the two major issues facing the
country — peace with the Palestinians and Iran’s nuclear program.
The announcement at 2:30 a.m. Tuesday of a new “national unity”
coalition with the opposition Kadima party took Israel by surprise,
infuriated Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents and freed the Prime Minister of
his reliance on religious and hawkish right-wing elements in the
Knesset.
It also put an end to talk of early elections in September and
guarantees Mr. Netanyahu will remain in power until October 2013.
“Nothing less than an atomic bomb was dropped with the dramatic
agreement that has inserted Kadima into the government and called off
an early vote,” declared columnist Yosi Verter in the newspaper
Haaretz.
The coalition deal “sends a very strong signal to Tehran, but also to
Europe and the United States, that Israel is united and the
leadership is capable of dealing with the threats that are there if
and when it becomes necessary,” said Gerald Steinberg, political
scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
The new coalition gives Mr. Netanyahu’s government 94 of the
Knesset’s 120 members and makes Kadima party leader Shaul Mofaz, an
Iranian-born former defence minister and chief of staff of the
Israeli Defence Force, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister. It also
pledges the new government to pursue four priorities: resolving
whether ultra-orthodox Jews should serve in the military, producing a
new budget, reforming Israel’s election process and advancing peace
talks with the Palestinians.
On the second of a four-day state visit to Canada, Shimon Peres,
Israel’s President and a former Labour Party prime minister, said, “A
broad national unity government is good for the security, for the
economy, for the people of Israel.”
Labour leader Shelly Yacimovich, who will become the new leader of
the Opposition in the Knesset, dismissed the coalition as “a pact of
cowards and the most contemptible and preposterous zigzag in Israel’s
political history.”
Hours before the announcement of the unity government, Israelis were
expecting to go to the polls on Sept. 4.
Mr. Mofaz, who took over leadership of the Kadima party only two
weeks ago, had repeatedly gone on the record as saying he would never
go into a coalition with Mr. Netanyahu.
“Not today. Not tomorrow and not after I lead Kadima,” he declared on
his Facebook page during his party leadership campaign. “This is a
bad, failed and insensitive government and Kadima under my leadership
will replace it in the next elections.”
By threatening early elections, when public opinion polls suggested
Kadima stood a chance of losing nearly half its 28 seats in the
Knesset, Mr. Netanyahu held the whip hand in coalition negotiations.
Mr. Mofaz may now manage to get a small share of power and time to
burnish his reputation with voters, but Mr. Netanyahu wins a series
of tactical victories that free him to move toward the centre of
Israeli politics, while strengthening his own position and possibly
laying the groundwork to reabsorb elements of Kadima into the Likud
party.
Kadima was created in November 2005 when then Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon broke with right-wing elements in Likud over plans to
unilaterally withdraw Israeli settlements from the Gaza Strip.
By reuniting the two parties in a unity government, Mr. Netanyahu may
be in a position to reinvigorate peace talks with the Palestinians.
“The Prime Minister, with Kadima at his side, is also now potentially
capable of taking a more centrist position on dealings with the
Palestinians and over settlements,” David Horovitz, editor of the
online newspaper Times of Israel wrote Tuesday. “It is by no means
clear that he wants to do so. But he has room for manoeuvre now, if
he wishes to use it. And the Americans and the rest of the
international community will be well aware of the fact.”
Under the new coalition agreement, Mr. Mofaz will be responsible for
reopening peace talks.
Mr. Netanyahu hasn’t shown a great deal of enthusiasm for a peace
deal, but before Tuesday his government depended on the support of
hard-right groups that were reluctant to negotiate.
Mr. Mofaz has said he is willing to make an interim agreement on
borders and security with the Palestinian Authority and that he feels
conflict with the Palestinians poses a greater threat to Israel than
Iran.
In the past, Mr. Mofaz has been a vocal critic of the possibility of
Israel attacking Iranian nuclear sites on its own. He has argued the
United States should lead any intervention.
Now, he will have a voice and a vote in any decision on the issue.
“Judging by the decision to bring Kadima into the government,
Netanyahu either is not planning on bringing a possible strike [on
Iran] to a vote or he believes that he has a majority in the Cabinet
without Mofaz,” Yaakov Katz, the military analyst with the Jerusalem
Post newspaper said.
“Another possibility is that Netanyahu believes that once Mofaz joins
the government and is re-exposed to the latest classified material on
Iran, the Kadima leader will change his mind.”
National Post, with files from Reuters (© 2012 National Post, a
division of Postmedia Network Inc. 05/09/12)
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