Mofaz-Netanyahu cabinet may pave the way for an Israeli strike on Iran (HA´ARETZ NEWS) By Amir Oren 05/09/12)
Source: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/mofaz-netanyahu-cabinet-may-pave-the-way-for-an-israeli-strike-on-iran-1.428950
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A "prime ministers´ forum" was held as part of the unity government
of 1984-1990: Shimon Peres, first as prime minister, later as vice-
prime minister and foreign (or finance minister); Yitzhak Shamir,
first as former and future prime minister and then as incumbent; and
Yitzhak Rabin, as former prime minister and incumbent defense
minister. All the important decisions of the time were made, while
not always unanimously, through the consultations of that threesome:
the retreat into south Lebanon, the Ahmed Jibril prisoner exchange
swap, the Jonathan Pollard affair, the Kav 300 affair [in which Shin
Bet operatives were blamed for killing terrorists following an attack
on the 300 bus near Ashkelon]; Iran-Contras, the cancellation of the
Lavi jet fighter project, ties with Jordan (in the London agreement),
and dealing with the first Intifada.
The deal reached between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima
chief Shaul Mofaz on Monday broke the record for cynical agreements,
one which had held since the August 1939 Molotov-Ribberntrop
agreement between Russia and Germany. It allows Netanyahu to change
his name to Kombinyamin [Netanyahu´s first name combined with the
word "Kombina," which in Israel is used to refer to an underhanded
deal], and reminds us that the last time Mofaz was anywhere near the
concept "reliability" it was as an IDF soldier during the raid to
rescue hijacked airline passengers in Entebbe.
But, the deal also reinstates the prime ministers´ forum, now again a
Triumvirate: an incumbent (Netanyahu), a former (Ehud Barak), and one
that shall never be (Mofaz). Barak, like Rabin who maintained the
defense portfolio under both Shamir and Peres, achieved the goal set
by his campaign ad release earlier this week: to remain defense
minister. At the beginning of the week, when he was the only one
joining close Netanyahu family members in going to the grave of
Netanyahu´s father Benzion, he effectively took on the role of the
prime minister´s brother. And, unlike the issue-filled 1980s, this
time there´s only one topic on the diplomatic-security agenda: Iran.
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This is, of course, when taking into account that the reelection of
U.S. President Barack Obama this November could – and as far as
Netanyahu is concerned, might – bring the Palestinian issue back to
center stage. A senior Israeli official who frequents the White House
quite a bit was under the impression that the Palestinian issue was
the only emotional aberration in Obama´s otherwise cool and cerebral
mode of thought – he empathizes with Palestinian distress. But
Netanyahu has that covered, as Mofaz will be entrusted with contact
with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas until the elections in
November 2012; first as the father of the revolutionary "Mofaz
program," which has been collecting dusk, and later as he takes on
the role of foreign minister, following Avigdor Lieberman´s forced
resignation from the cabinet and as empty portfolios need to be
manned.
Mofaz will fly out to meet U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,
and maybe even Obama will give him some quality time. He´ll get some
respect, and in return will take on at least some of the burden of
responsibility, with Netanyahu able to delay any move that could
interrupt him within Likud.
As for Iran, Mofaz has thus far distanced himself from the reckless
adventurism attributed to Barak and Netanyahu. However, that was a
long time ago, about 24 hours, and in the meantime he lost the "o"
and one "p" from "opposition," and has ended up with "position." His
relative advantage, as the only Iranian-born Israeli leader, he
already used in previous years in speaking with Iranians on Israeli
Radio´s Farsi station. Then, he warned Tehran of the consequences of
an attack on Israel, and promised, among other things, to spare the
civilian population when Israel goes on a counter strike; he also
supported economic sanctions. But that was during previous, less
belligerent cabinets.
In Mofaz´s case, there´s a point in the matter, although not the one
Itzik was going for – the army man´s habit to salute his superiors.
When he was chief of staff, he obeyed his superiors – more so in the
case of former Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai and then Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon than to Netanyahu, Barak, and former Defense
Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer – and when he was defense minister he
obeyed Sharon. Now, as a partner in the innermost discussions, he can
be noted as the minority vote opposing the other two in all the
dramatic decisions yet to be made. If the adventure works, Mofaz will
be there; if it fails, well, he warned and tried his utmost to
prevent it.
The addition of Mofaz, along with that of former Shin Bet chief Avi
Dichter as head of the Knesset´s Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee, gives Netanyahu and Barak a protective vest against any
political opposition of the move against Iran. Pushing back the
elections also prevents the retiring of ministers Dan Meridor and
Benny Begin, leaders of those resisting the Netanyahu-Barak move in
unofficial Forum of Eight discussions. Vice Prime Minister Moshe
Ya´alon, who moved away from the defense portfolio and who
effectively lost his place as the PM´s acting substitute to Mofaz,
joined, after preliminary hesitations, to Meridor and Begin, and now
could ratchet up his objections. But, with Kadima in the government,
the internal battle has been decided, even if only in points.
It´s a necessary but insufficient condition: Obama still objects. The
U.S. Defense Secretary said again in a TV interview over the last
weekend that Netanyahu and Barak received clear messages from
Netanyahu and himself on that issue. The bizarre idea of timing the
attack for September-October, both as giving a heads-up to the
Iranian aerial defenses as well as an attempt to provoke Obama on the
eve of the elections, is now officially off the agenda with the delay
of elections of Israel and Mofaz´s inclusion.
But that´s only an expansion of the possible timetable. Those
opposing a preemptive operation have one immediate cause for relief
and a cause for concern in the long run of anywhere between two
months and a year, with Spring 2013 as a target date. Supporters of
the move, on the other hand, can claim that strengthening the
government and the implied threat that suggests, could bring about a
better negotiation stance for the world powers in their nuclear talks
with Iran, which renew in two weeks in Baghdad.
The Mofaz-Netanyahu pact´s point of brilliance probably borrows from
the infamous "Bibi-tours" affair: signing up to the government on a
free-seat basis. Yossi Peled and Matan Vilnai are out; Ruhama
Avraham – Kadima´s most powerful politician – along with another one
from the long list of politicians who supported Mofaz in exchange for
a ministerial position, are in. But just as importantly, the
Knesset´s State Control Committee is losing its chairman, Ronny Bar-
On. When State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss hands in a tough
report on the Carmel fire disaster, or on the decision making which
led to Israel´s raid of the Gaza-bound aid flotilla, or on any other
issue, there won´t be a political official demanding accountability
from Netanyahu. (© Copyright 2012 Ha´aretz 05/09/12)
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