Netanyahu’s ‘big bang’: A preliminary analysis (TIMES OF ISRAEL) Gerald Steinberg 05/08/12)
Source: http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-big-bang-a-preliminary-analysis/
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Israel may finally have gotten the political “big bang” that voters
thought they were getting during the elections three years ago. The
agreement bringing the centrist and pragmatic Kadima party into a
wider government coalition, under Netanyahu’s leadership, creates the
stable and broad political base necessary for tackling Israel’s major
challenges. The ideological fringes and interest groups on all sides
are isolated, and their artificial political power, resulting from
the ability to bring down narrow coalitions, has been deflated.
While a totally fresh start in the complex Israeli political system
is unrealistic, the new coalition, based on a wide Zionist consensus,
provides unprecedented opportunities for addressing and perhaps even
fixing many of the dysfunctional components. The agenda items for
this new government provide more than enough urgent issues to fill
the 18 months until elections must be held. Even prioritizing them
will not be easy. And governing with a coalition of 94 Knesset
members (more that three-quarters of the total) has some significant
limitations.
The immediate trigger that almost brought down the current coalition
was the urgency of replacing the “Tal Law” that granted exemptions
from military service to the ultra-Orthodox sector and was struck
down in the courts. More broadly, relations between this narrow group
and the wider population, the unjustified economic subsidies they
receive, and the exaggerated political role of the rabbinical
leadership, will now be open for a long overdue correction.
Wider economic reform is another immediate issue, particularly the
need to reverse the huge divide between Israel’s richest one-percent
and the poorer and usually-underpaid general population. The Jewish
principles of social justice had become empty slogans, and last
summer’s student-led protests rightfully demanded affordable housing,
improvements in public transportation and the break-up of monopolies
that raised prices with impunity. With less dependence on wealthy
political donors, the “big bang” government can address these issues
and repair the badly frayed social contract.
The longer-term social and economic impacts of this broad coalition
extend, potentially, beyond the next year and a half, and reopen the
door to long-overdue changes in outmoded governance processes and
structures. Such basic constitutional changes, which can only be
adopted by a wide consensus, are necessary to prevent a return to the
old system in which small factions and fringe groups maneuvered
between the major parties.
On the complex issues of borders, settlements and negotiations with
the Palestinians, the new government can belatedly confront the
violent fringe that has sought to impose its views. The pragmatic
consensus that supports a stable peace, if possible, and recognizes
the costs to Israel of unending occupation and responsibility for
millions of Palestinian Arabs, can reassert its voice.
This does not mean a return to the vulnerability of the 1949 cease-
fire lines, or destruction of communities built in good faith across
that “green line.” But now, the government has the credibility to
pursue negotiations for a two-state framework based on compromise. If
Israelis see a basis for stable agreement, including an end to
invented Palestinian histories and efforts to flood Israel with
millions of third-generation “refugees,” the majority will accept the
costs. And if such negotiations reach another dead end, a broad-based
Israeli government can move toward implementing the consensus
approach to borders and leave the Palestinians to decide how to
govern themselves.
A broad unity government anchored by Likud and Kadima — the two
largest Israeli parties — will also have the legitimacy and stability
to deal carefully and seriously with the wider regional challenges.
If Iran continues to move toward nuclear weapons, all options are
still on the table, and do not need to be spelled out again. The
presence of three former IDF chiefs of Staff in this government is,
in itself, a form of deterrence, (although on many issues, the narrow
military backgrounds of party leaders are not always assets). In
addition, given the unprecedented and unpredictable changes in Egypt
and Syria, Israel presents an image of stability and democratic
strength. New Egyptian leaders who might seek to divert public
attention from economic and other issues by renouncing the peace
treaty with Israel might now have second thoughts regarding the
potential response.
For Israel’s Arab citizens and other minorities, a more stable and
coherent Israeli leadership can reduce the impact of extremists and
separatist groups, and strengthen the options for equal opportunity.
The Israeli Jewish majority has shown that it remains united on core
identity issues, but, as in the case of European, Islamic and other
nation-states characterized by a dominant culture, minority rights
need to be safeguarded.
Finally, the fact that this political maneuver took most Israeli
pundits by surprise demonstrates the degree to which Netanyahu’s
strategic and political skills are underestimated and misrepresented.
Ideological and personal factors have blinded analysts and foreign
political leaders, including heads of state, to the caution and
deliberation with which Netanyahu has governed in the past three
years. There are also important lessons to be learned from this
dimension.
Overall, the consensus-based governing coalition is the right move at
the right time. But despite having come close to the long-
overdue “big bang” before, only to be disappointed by the fizzle, the
renewed optimism is justified. (© 2012 THE TIMES OF ISRAEL 05/08/12)
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