Israeli politics in tailspin over Iran (CNN) Cable News Network Op-Ed) By Jon B. Alterman, Special to CNN 05/02/12)
Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/02/opinion/alterman-israel-politics-iran/index.html?hpt=imi_t3
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Editor´s note: Jon B. Alterman holds the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in
Global Security and Geostrategy and is director of the Middle East
Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He
teaches Middle Eastern studies at the Johns Hopkins School of
Advanced International Studies and George Washington University.
Follow the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Twitter
at @CSIS_org.
(CNN) -- Israel, by necessity, has developed one of the most able
security and intelligence apparatus in the world. There has been no
necessity to develop a world-class political apparatus, however, and
it shows.
In a single week, the Israeli army´s chief of staff, the former head
of internal security and the former head of external security have
all publicly questioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu´s
judgment on Iran. While the current army chief spoke narrowly about
the Iranian government, the former security officials directed their
fire at Israeli politicians. On Friday, the former internal security
chief told an Israeli audience, "I don´t believe in a leadership that
makes decisions based on messianic feelings" -- and he was speaking
not of Iran, but of Israel.
Last week was Israel´s independence day, traditionally an occasion of
pride and celebration. Instead, Israelis are in a deep funk.
At its founding in 1948, Israel seemed an improbable state. An
ingathering of Jews from Eastern Europe, the Arab world and beyond
had no real economy, no common language and no common idea of what it
was to be an Israeli. Tensions between religious Jews and secular
Jews, European Jews and Oriental Jews, and Jews and Arabs simmered
for decades. They made accommodations in the name of survival, but
few conceded the fight for control of the state.
Although the old distinctions between Polish and German Jews have
faded, many Oriental Jews continue to feel disenfranchised, the
rising political prominence of recent immigrants from the former
Soviet Union has created another tribe in Israel, and the poor and
disempowered Ethiopian Jews yet one more.
Politics in Israel has always been a contact sport, but rather than
battle to win over the center, an increasing number of political
battles are conducted entirely on the fringes. Small religious
parties seek greater social spending for their constituents, while a
party representing secular Russian Jews focuses on undermining a law
exempting ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service.
In election after election, the major parties´ share of the vote
diminishes, leading to weak coalitions that are ideologically
incoherent and that are forced to dole out Cabinet posts and largesse
to their members to stay in power. Governments become tentative and
fragile. The problems call for decisiveness, but the politicians
rarely feel they can afford to be.
For Israelis, Iran is an excruciating problem. They rely on
intelligence that is never as good as they wish it to be, try to
assess accurately actions of people they don´t know well and do so
with potentially devastating consequences for a wrong move.
Israelis also debate Iran with a clarity few other countries can
muster: If bombs fell on Israel, how many people have access to
fallout shelters? Are the disastrous forest fires of 2010 a sign that
Israel´s disaster response is simply not up to the task of a military
confrontation? What would a military confrontation look like anyway,
and could it be won? Israel´s last war against another state´s army
was almost 40 years ago. Its subsequent confrontations have had less
clear results.
The Israeli political class struggles to consider these issues and
more. Should Israel do more to seek peace with the Palestinians? Can
it reverse increasingly hostile relations with Turkey? Is a wealth of
recently discovered natural gas in the Mediterranean the country´s
economic salvation? Can Israel do anything about shifting politics in
Egypt and the rest of the Arab world that are sidelining pragmatists
who sought an accommodation with Israel? And more fundamentally, what
is it to be a Jewish state when Israelis themselves cannot agree on
who is the arbiter of Jewishness? None of these problems is
especially new, but the political forces in Israel seem increasingly
unable to confront them.
Israelis have traditionally sought political salvation from former
generals. Many of Israel´s greatest political personalities, from
Yitzhak Rabin to Ariel Sharon, came out of the military
establishment. For more than a decade, former leaders on the security
front have tried to step forward to consolidate Israeli politics
toward the middle.
Former Gen. Yitzhak Mordechai formed the ill-fated Center Party in
1999, and Sharon formed the centrist Kadima Party in 2005. The
security veterans´ recent critiques fit into the same pattern, and
they may boost the political aspirations of newcomer Yair Lapid,
whose background is in media rather than the battlefield. Yet tactics
communicated at high volume are not the same as strategy, and
Israelis increasingly complain that the former keep substituting for
the latter.
It is a sign of the vibrancy of Israeli political life that
authoritative voices can come out and critique government policy. It
is a sign of the weakness of Israeli politics that so many of
Israel´s same problems persist and so many coalitions remain fragile.
For many outside of Israel, it is Israel´s position on Iran that is
truly consequential, and the rest is commentary. For Israelis, the
roiling debate on Iran is just another example of the way Israeli
politics work. Israeli politics are not likely to change quickly, and
the challenges Israelis feel from Iran are not likely to go away
quickly either. Therein lies the rub.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Jon B.
Alterman. (© 2012 Cable News Network 05/02/12)
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