Iran Using Spin to Divide and Conquer (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Jonathan S. Tobin 04/27/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/04/26/iran-negotiating-tactic-divide-and-conquer-p51-talks/
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While President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton have attempted
to talk tough about the ongoing negotiations with Iran over its
nuclear program, by agreeing to the P5+1 talks that were launched
last week in Istanbul, the administration has set in motion a process
that is clearly lurching out of their control. The Iranians scored a
not insignificant victory by convincing the West to wait several
weeks until the next meeting in late May. And as Laura Rozen reported
in Al Monitor last week, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, a
fierce critic of Israel, is in clear charge of the negotiations and
may be steering the talks toward a deal that will fall well short of
an agreement that would force an end to the Iranian program. But a
key element to the creation of such an unsatisfactory conclusion to
this process will be to convince the West that the Iranians are
genuinely interested in a deal. And as Rozen notes today, the
Islamist regime is working hard to give onlookers the impression that
accommodation is their priority.
If all this sounds to good to be true it’s because it almost
certainly is. The spin coming out of Tehran is aimed at creating
false confidence in their willingness to abandon their nuclear
ambitions and sign a deal that would allow the Europeans, as well as
Iran’s Russian and Chinese friends to pretend that worries about the
ayatollahs getting their hands on a nuke are put to rest. But since
the Iranians have already successfully played this cat and mouse game
with Western negotiators before, the only reasonable conclusion to be
drawn from the “positive signals” coming out Iran is that the regime
is aiming at driving a wedge between the United States and the other
members of the P5+1 delegation.
These “positive signals” from regime figures about their desire for
an end to the confrontation are exactly what those who were never
really interested in pushing the Iranians hard want to hear. The
Iranian happy talk is the bait needed to draw Ashton into prolonged
negotiations that serve a double purpose for Tehran.
On the one hand, the effort to build confidence in Iran’s desire to
peace helps undermine any sense of urgency on the part of the West as
well as sapping support for increasing sanctions on the regime this
summer. So long as the talks are being conducted the Iranians know
they are safe from attack from Israel. But if they can convince
gullible Western diplomats as well as the so-called experts about
Iran that the process is leading toward an agreement, then it is
possible the EU will back down on its promise to embargo Iranian oil.
This holds out the hope that the West will gradually back away from
sanctions and make it more difficult to make credible threats even
after the Iranians inevitably disappoint their negotiating partners
as they have repeatedly.
But the Iranian tactic has another more fundamental purpose. The
Iranians benefit from dragging out the negotiations as long as
possible since that allows their nuclear program extra time to keep
refining uranium in order to get closer to their goal of a bomb. As
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said this week, their centrifuges
were spinning before the talks started, they were spinning during the
talks and have not stopped since.
It is a hopeful sign that, as Rozen reports, the State Department is
dismissing the Iranian signals that others are so determined to
interpret positively. However, by going down the garden path with the
P5+1 group, the Obama administration is no longer in control of the
effort to pressure Tehran. If, as the Iranians not unreasonably
believe, the Chinese and Russians can be wooed into supporting their
stand in the talks, all the president’s “diplomatic window” will have
accomplished will be to buy the Islamist regime more precious time to
get closer to their nuclear goal as his shaky international coalition
unravels.
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