Negotiating With Iran, 1979 and 2012 (WEEKLY STANDARD) BY ELLIOTT ABRAMS / BLOG 04/20/12)
Source: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/negotiating-iran-1979-and-2012_640478.html
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As the United States and other members of the P5+1 commence
negotiations with Iran, it is worth recalling the classic analysis of
Iran’s negotiating style sent in from the U.S. embassy in Tehran on
August 13, 1979. The author of the cable, political counselor Victor
Tomseth, and the man who authorized it, charge d’affaires Bruce
Laingen, became hostages when the embassy was seized on November 4,
1979.
The cable is an analysis of the “underlying cultural and
psychological qualities” that explain the difficulties the embassy
had been having in negotiations with the new regime. In one famous
line, the cable claims that “Perhaps the single dominant aspect of
the Persian psyche is an overriding egoism … that leaves little room
for understanding points of view other than one’s own.” There is also
a “pervasive unease about the nature of the world in which … nothing
is permanent and … hostile forces abound.” Persians therefore see
themselves as “obviously justified in using almost any means
available to exploit such opportunities” to protect themselves.
Tomseth then adds that Persians have a poor understanding of
causality, “an aversion to accepting responsibility for one’s
actions,” and resist “the idea that Iranian behavior has
consequences” on American policy.
From these analyses, explained at greater length, the cable draws
lessons. First, “one should never assume that his side of the issue
will be recognized, let alone that it will be conceded to have
merits. … A negotiator must force recognition of his position upon
his Persian opposite number.” Second, the Iranian negotiator will
not seek cooperation or a long-term relationship of trust; instead,
he “will assume that his opposite number is his adversary” and
will “seek to maximize the benefits to himself that are immediately
available.” Third, “linkages will be neither readily comprehended nor
accepted.” Fourth, and especially relevant now, “one should insist on
performance as the sine qua non at each stage of the negotiations.
Statements of intention count for almost nothing.”
Fifth, “cultivation of good will for good will’s sake is a waste of
effort.” And finally, “one should be prepared for the threat of
breakdown in negotiations at any given moment and not be cowed by
this possibility.”
With these warnings in mind, reading accounts of the first round of
negotiations held in Istanbul on April 14 cannot be reassuring. The
most detailed account is from Laura Rozen. There we see a “Western
diplomat” explaining that “The morning session was very positive: the
vibe ... was, ´wow, they are engaging.’” Rozen reports that
a “European diplomat” happily noted to her that EU foreign minister
Lady Catherine Ashton “rebuilt a rapport with [Saeed] Jalili,” the
Iranian negotiator. “The Iranian delegation body language when Wendy
[Sherman] spoke was direct and engaged,” a European diplomat told
Rozen. Such nonsense must make the Iranians smile. Indeed, one would
love to see the Iranian version of Tomseth’s cable, explaining the
ingenuousness of American and other Western negotiators: seeking
personal rapport and good vibes, committed to the value of the
process itself, and wanting above all to prevent a “breakdown in
negotiations.”
Nor can it be reassuring that the two most important negotiators are
Ashton and Sherman. Prior to 2008, Ashton’s only involvement in
world affairs was six years (1977-1983) as a high official of the
Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND). CND is a leftist organization
that, while Ashton was one of its leaders and the Soviet Union was an
expansionist power, called for unilateral nuclear disarmament by the
United Kingdom and the prevention of any deployment of nuclear
weapons there. CND has a long history of denouncing U.S. policy just
about everywhere—from the Vietnam War to today’s Middle East. Rozen’s
account shows Ashton very much in charge of the Istanbul talks, which
in fact were delayed from May 10 until May 23 to accommodate Ashton’s
calendar.
Sherman, who leads the U.S. delegation, is now under secretary of
state for political affairs. In the Clinton administration, Sherman
was counselor to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and “policy
coordinator” on North Korea. At the end of her tenure, she wrote in
the New York Times that North Korea is “a country of immense pride.”
She added that after the Albright trip to Pyongyang in October 2000,
where Albright happily exchanged friendly toasts with her
hosts, “North Korea´s leader, Kim Jong Il, appears ready to make
landmark commitments about the missile program. To ensure the
survival of his regime, he has to improve the country´s disastrous
economy by reducing the burden of a vast missile program and opening
the doors to trade.”
There is no record of Sherman acknowledging that her judgment on
North Korea was wrong or suggesting that from the experience of
failed Clinton and Bush policies toward North Korea she has taken any
lessons at all. While talks continued for years, North Korea
continued the development of nuclear weapons and of missiles—a somber
thought in the context of the Iran negotiations.
The next round of talks is scheduled for Baghdad on May 23. Ashton
called the Istanbul talks “constructive and useful.” That reminded me
of the last time an EU foreign minister stood next to Jalili and
said, “The meeting of today has been constructive.” That was in
2007.
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