At Nuclear Talks, Hopes That a New Iranian Attitude Will Reduce Tensions (NY) TIMES) By STEVEN ERLANGER ISTANBUL, TURKEY 04/13/12)
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/13/world/middleeast/us-hopes-iran-nuclear-talks-will-reduce-tensions.html
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ISTANBUL — At negotiations this week between Iran and six world
powers, the United States and its allies hope to make enough progress
to take some of the urgency out of the confrontation over Tehran’s
nuclear program, to reassure Israel and to arrange a second round of
talks soon.
For the first time in years, both Iran and the six powers — the
United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany — seem
interested in serious negotiations that both sides have agreed will
take a “step by step” approach and be “reciprocal.” And both sides
say they are coming to the talks here in Istanbul with proposals on
the nuclear issue in discussions that may begin over dinner on Friday
night and will continue formally on Saturday. Iranian state media
said Tehran’s delegation arrived in Istanbul on Friday morning.
But considerable doubts remain about how far Iran is willing to go to
satisfy the United Nations Security Council’s demands to suspend
uranium enrichment and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy
Agency. One reason is the West’s experience with Iran’s lead
negotiator, Saeed Jalili, who is considered tough and inflexible, is
given to long speeches and is careful to stick to his negotiating
instructions.
Mr. Jalili, 46, an engineer by training, is the secretary of Iran’s
Supreme National Security Council. His career has had its ups and
downs, but it appears to be on the rise again.
Intriguingly, diplomats said, Mr. Jalili has acquired an additional
title in his correspondence with the representative of the six
powers, Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief.
Mr. Jalili’s letterhead identifies him as the “personal
representative of the supreme leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
presumably meaning that Mr. Jalili will speak on his behalf in
Istanbul, at least up to a point. That alone would be a major change,
the diplomats said, especially in an Iranian system that everyone
outside of it agrees is opaque.
“When the Iranians do things like this we think it means something,”
said Volker Perthes, director of Germany’s Institute for
International and Security Affairs. “Jalili seems to be indicating
that you can do business with me because the supreme leader is behind
my mission. That’s a change.”
At the last round of these talks, in Istanbul in January 2011, Mr.
Jalili lectured rather than negotiated, and demanded preconditions
for serious talks that were unacceptable to the six powers. But Mr.
Jalili was also Iran’s lead negotiator in Geneva in October 2009,
when a tentative agreement was reached to export most of Iran’s
enriched uranium in return for nuclear fuel. That deal, openly
supported by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, was rejected by
Ayatollah Khamenei.
Both Mr. Jalili and Mr. Ahmadinejad suffered when that deal fell
apart, derailed partly by a fierce presidential election in Iran and
by the Iranian hierarchy’s belief that President Obama was not
serious about the talks, said Farideh Farhi, an independent scholar
and expert in Iranian politics at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
But the context is different now. Iran has produced a much greater
quantity of enriched uranium, some of it at 20 percent purity, just a
few technical steps from bomb grade; it has placed many more
centrifuges deep inside a protected mountain at Fordo, near Qum; and
it is facing increased sanctions that are causing severe economic
distress. So there is more of a sense of urgency on both sides, with
Israeli leaders talking openly of bombing Iran’s nuclear sites before
it becomes too difficult to do so.
There are important internal changes in Iran, too. Iran appears to
have suppressed its “green revolution,” while Ayatollah Khamenei has
solidified his power and Mr. Ahmadinejad, who had challenged him, is
considered much weakened. Ayatollah Khamenei has been especially
protective of Iran’s nuclear program, while at the same time saying
that it is against Islam to possess nuclear weapons. Iran denies that
its nuclear program has a military aim, but most members of the
Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency have
expressed doubts.
The United States has made clear that the 20-percent-enriched uranium
and the protected Fordo site are matters of urgency, and Iran has
hinted that it may be willing to suspend enrichment to 20 percent, at
least temporarily, in return for concessions — which may include, for
instance, suspending the European Union’s oil embargo, scheduled to
begin July 1, or even of some sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank.
Reciprocal suspensions of some kind, experts say, might be enough to
buy time and get both sides to another round of talks.
“Jalili is not considered to be very smart, even inside Iran,” Ms.
Farhi said. “He used to work in the office of Khamenei, and wouldn’t
go to Istanbul without specific instructions about how serious the
talks should be. But for Iran, some things have changed: sanctions
have become harsher, and they believe the kinds of technological
advances they pushed through have made a difference in American
calculations.”
So this time “both sides seem a bit more optimistic, and both sides
are worried about failure,” Ms. Farhi said. “There is more of a
balance of interests; that brings a seriousness to this discussion.”
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, talking to reporters in
Washington on Thursday about the impending talks, acknowledged that
the Iranians had signaled their intent to bring up new ideas, and she
suggested that the United States was prepared to consider reciprocal
steps. But Mrs. Clinton also said the Iranians must “demonstrate
clearly in the actions they propose that they have truly abandoned
any nuclear weapons ambition.”
Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear expert at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies and a former senior official at the State
Department, said he also saw a new impetus for these talks stemming
from the pain of the economic sanctions on Iran and of
Washington’s “keen interest in persuading Iran to accept some limits”
so that Israeli military action can be postponed and talks can
continue.
He also said that Mr. Jalili, humiliated by the rejection of the 2009
deal, clearly had moved closer to Ayatollah Khamenei and had been an
important figure in Iran’s rejection in February of closer
cooperation with the international atomic agency on military
inspections in Iran. Those inspections were meant to satisfy
lingering questions about Iran’s nuclear intentions.
“So he’s seen as a hard-liner,” Mr. Fitzpatrick said. “And he’s again
the one fronting for Iran, so expectations are not high that he of
his own volition would be looking for a way out.”
In the end, all agree, any key decisions will rest with Ayatollah
Khamenei, 72, who since he became supreme leader in 1989 has remained
highly suspicious of the United States.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment of
International Peace in Washington, said that “in past meetings,
Jalili has been less a negotiator and more a human tape recorder who
simply repeats official government slogans.” But Iran will have to
make “meaningful compromises,” he said, if it wants to avert new
sanctions and participate in a further round of talks.
Mr. Sadjadpour expressed doubts that Ayatollah Khamenei is “capable
of suddenly reinventing himself at age 72.” No deal can be made
without him, “but what’s unclear is if any deal can be made with him.”
Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting from Washington. (Copyright
2012 The New York Times Company 04/13/12)
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