A Tale of Two Civil Wars (FrontPageMagazine.com) by Alan W. Dowd 04/11/12)
Source: http://frontpagemag.com/2012/04/11/a-tale-of-two-civil-wars/
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The Syrian civil war is now more than a year old. The Syrian army has
killed some 10,000 people—and counting. Although Damascus has made
promises about ceasefires and diplomatic settlements, it’s not in
Bashar Assad’s DNA to countenance any challenge to his rule. Recall
that his father slaughtered 20,000 Syrians to staunch a 1982
uprising. The younger Assad’s army—what one observer describes as
a “hellish killing machine”—is on its way to eclipsing that grisly
milestone. For instance, Assad’s henchmen ushered in this week by
attacking refugee camps, firing across the Turkish and Lebanese
borders, and making a mockery of the latest UN peace plan. In
response, President Barack Obama has offered little more than
promises of non-lethal aid and intonations about establishing “a
process” to transition to a “legitimate government.” Inaction in the
face of such butchery is easy to criticize, of course. Since America
cannot intervene everywhere, presidents have to draw the line
somewhere. But it’s difficult to understand why the president has
chosen to draw that line at Syria, especially if we consider Obama’s
response to the Libyan civil war just one year ago.
Recall that in announcing his decision to intervene in Libya (by
bombing Qaddafi’s forces), the president declared, “We cannot stand
idly by when a tyrant tells his people that there will be no mercy,
and his forces step up their assaults on cities…where innocent men
and women face brutality and death at the hands of their own
government.”
That sounds like a fairly accurate description of Syria. Yet this
time around, there’s no help on the way for the rebels—at least not
from Obama. Instead of a Libya-style air war, Obama’s reaction to
Syria is beginning to look a lot like Washington’s non-response to
the mangling of Bosnia almost two decades ago. As Senator Joe
Lieberman recently observed, “I feel like we are reliving history.”
When Yugoslavia began to descend into civil war in 1992, Western
Europe seized upon the crisis as an opportunity to prove it was ready
to keep the peace. It was, as one European diplomat famously
declared, “the hour of Europe.”
Washington took the hint and stepped aside. It would be a fateful
decision. Europe’s confidence in itself and in the UN was badly
misplaced. As historian William Pfaff notes in The Wrath of
Nations, “In the Bosnian crisis, the United States didn’t act, so
everyone failed to act.” He argues that international organizations
like the United Nations “proved an obstacle to action, by inhibiting
individual national action and rationalizing the refusal to act
nationally.”
The result: some 200,000 dead and millions of refugees.
As a candidate, then-Governor Bill Clinton had promised to end the
bloodletting by arming the outgunned Bosnian Muslims and striking
Serb artillery with U.S. airpower. But before he could take any such
action as president, Clinton was blindsided by Somalia. And so, the
slow-motion genocide continued for 31 months under Clinton.
The low point came when Dutch peacekeepers in the laughably misnamed
UN Protection Force allowed Serb militiamen to enter the so-called
safe haven of Srebrenica and liquidate 7,000 Bosnian men and boys. It
was a microcosm of the entire war: The Serbs were by and large the
aggressors, the Muslims were outgunned and thus easy prey, the UN was
worthless, the Europeans were helpless, and the Americans were absent.
Only after Washington reasserted itself in late 1995, after
Srebrenica, did the situation on the ground change. When U.S.
military might was finally brought to bear against Serbian
paramilitaries, the one-sided war came to an abrupt end, just as many
had predicted.
This is not to say that a Bosnia- or Libya-style intervention in
Syria is the right course of action. After all, there are risks to
getting in and risks to staying out.
Intervening makes post-Assad Syria the West’s problem—and could even
open the door to more toxic problems. Egypt reminds us that what
replaces autocracy may not be worth celebrating.
Not intervening, on the other hand, will allow Assad to strangle the
opposition and extend his rule, like his father and Saddam did for
decades, like the mullahs have in Iran, like all dictators do when
their subjects’ cries for help go unanswered.
Moreover, no two international crises are identical. Indeed, there
are many differences between Bosnia circa 1995 and Syria circa 2012.
One of the most significant is how directly what’s happening in Syria
could impact America’s wider national-security interests.
The primary motivation for intervening in Bosnia was always
humanitarian. Syria, on the other hand, is one of those unique cases
where conscience and national interest overlap: Protecting the people
of Syria—a humanitarian motivation—by targeting the Assad regime
would deal a blow to Syria’s patron and partner in Iran—a national-
security interest.
Another important difference between Bosnia and Syria is how U.S.-led
coalitions of the willing have built an impressive record in recent
years of punishing and/or ending regimes that flout basic norms of
behavior: In addition to Bosnia, that record includes Kosovo, Iraq,
Afghanistan and Libya. (The fact that brutal governments remain in
power in places like Sudan and North Korea should not overshadow the
fact that there are fewer such governments today than there were,
say, 15 years ago.)
While Obama has been largely silent and inactive on the situation in
Syria, he wasn’t silent this time last year, when he ordered U.S.
forces to take part in NATO’s air war against Qaddafi.
“In just one month,” Obama boasted, “the United States has worked
with our international partners to mobilize a broad coalition, secure
an international mandate to protect civilians, stop an advancing
army, prevent a massacre, and establish a no-fly zone with our allies
and partners. To lend some perspective on how rapidly this military
and diplomatic response came together, when people were being
brutalized in Bosnia in the 1990s, it took the international
community more than a year to intervene with air power to protect
civilians. It took us 31 days.”
If it was fair for Obama to take that swipe at the Clinton
administration, then it seems fair to point out the shortcomings in
Obama’s own approach. It is Obama’s incongruent response to these
congruent crises that—according to his own standard for action—makes
his Syria policy a failure. (Copyright © 2012 FrontPageMagazine.com
04/11/12)
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