Iran’s Stalling Tactics Humiliate Obama (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Jonathan S. Tobin 04/04/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/04/04/iran-stall-clouds-obama-window-of-diplomacy/
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The Obama administration has spent the last few months furiously
arguing that diplomacy backed up by tough sanctions is the only
possible path to stop Iran’s drive for nuclear capability. But in
agreeing to a new round of negotiations with the Iranians, Washington
has set itself up to be made to look ridiculous. The ayatollahs have
shown themselves to be masters of diplomatic gamesmanship as they
have repeatedly made fools out of the European negotiators who have
sought in recent years to craft some sort of compromise on the
nuclear issue.
But anyone in either the White House or the State Department who
thought this latest round of diplomacy would go differently got a
shock today when the Iranians made it clear that as far as they were
concerned the agreement to talk was merely a signal for the games to
begin. As the New York Times reports, the Iranians have already
started to stall by insisting on changing the venue of the talks.
Though the negotiations were scheduled to begin next week in Turkey,
a country that is openly siding with the Iranians, having as their
host another Islamist government wasn’t good enough for Tehran. They
are now suggesting Iraq or China as alternatives. To show just how
far the Iranians are prepared to go to turn this process into a
farce, they are also considering suggesting the talks be held in
Syria, where, presumably, negotiators can witness Iran’s ally mowing
down dissenters in the streets.
The excuse for the last-minute change supposedly stems from Iran’s
irritation with the Turks because of their stands on the survival of
Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria as well as its membership in NATO,
because of that alliance’s role in promoting missile defense systems
to guard against possible Iranian attacks. But these flimsy excuses
should fool no one. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was
feted just last week in Tehran where he pledged to support the
Iranians against “Western arrogance.”
The only possible reason to demand a change in the venue of the talks
is to delay the process. Even if the West were to agree to this
request — and it shouldn’t — it would only be followed by further
stalling tactics straight out of the North Vietnamese handbook. Don’t
be surprised if the shape of the table is raised. And then even if an
agreement on some unsatisfactory compromise is reached, we should
expect the Iranians to stall on its implementation and then renege on
it altogether as they have done more than once with the Europeans.
Iran’s negotiating partner, the P5-plus 1 countries — Britain, China,
France, Russia, Germany and the United States — have painted
themselves into a corner in these talks. They have, as President
Obama has stated repeatedly, pledged themselves to stopping Iran’s
nuclear program. But if, as is almost certain, the talks with the
Iranians get nowhere, if indeed they ever get started, then what will
the president and his European colleagues do?
It is not exactly a secret the only reason the U.S. and the Euros
have agreed to enforce tough sanctions and threatened an oil embargo
of Iran is their fear that absent such efforts, Israel would have no
choice but to attack in order to remove an existential threat to its
existence. To that end, the Obama administration has gone all out to
pressure Israel to hold off on any attack this year while what the
president calls a “window of diplomacy” is explored. But if the
diplomatic window is publicly seen to be only a ruse on Iran’s part,
what then will Washington tell Israel or the American people?
If the Israelis have agreed, as reports claim, to hold off on a
military solution to the Iran problem, they have, in effect, put
responsibility for stopping Iran clearly on the shoulders of
President Obama. But by agreeing to deal with the diplomatic
tricksters in Tehran, the president has in effect made himself a
hostage to the ayatollahs’ caprices. Though the administration has
placed a priority on measures that will enable them to kick the
Iranian can down the road until after the November election, the
president may soon discover that his negotiating partners in Tehran
have no intention of sparing him the embarrassment that is an
inevitable part of dealing with them.
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