Why Did the Administration Leak the Israel-Azerbaijan Story? (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Jonathan S. Tobin 04/03/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/04/03/administration-leak-israel-azerbaijan-story/
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Veteran Israeli journalist Ehud Yaari has written in the Times of
Israel claiming last week’s bombshell from Foreign Policy magazine
about Azerbaijan’s willingness to allow Israel to use its air bases
to strike Iran was pure fiction. Yaari excoriates the editors of
Foreign Policy, the Israeli press (including, presumably, the Times
of Israel, which prominently reported it) and anyone else (including,
presumably, me) for taking it seriously. But though Yaari presents
some good arguments why it might not be true, unlike magazine author
Mark Perry, he offers no sources or reporting to back up his
assertion.
But even if we assume Yaari is right and Perry’s piece is wrong,
there are some interesting questions to be posed about the piece.
Unless you are willing to believe, as perhaps Yaari and others
disputing its authenticity do, that Perry is lying about the fact
that senior officials in the Obama administration leaked the story to
him, it’s still important to ask why they did so. What possible
motive could they have had?
The answer is simple. Whether the air base angle was true or not,
publicizing the ongoing close cooperation between Israel and
Azerbaijan (something Yaari actually concedes is factual) can only
make it more difficult for that relationship to continue. Because, as
Yaari rightly notes, Perry is no friend of Israel, the willingness of
Obama’s minions to circulate the tale speaks volumes about the off-
the-record malevolence that lurks beneath the surface of the
president’s current charm offensive aimed at Jewish voters.
As to the facts of the piece, Yaari has a fair point when he asks how
Israeli planes could fly to Azerbaijan to launch strikes against
Iran. As he notes, Iran’s friend Turkey is not likely to permit the
Israeli Air Force to fly over its territory to get to the Azeri
bases. But Perry’s story seems to indicate that the use of the bases
would be used to land the planes after an attack on Iran, not
necessarily as the source of possible attacks. Because Yaari knows
Israel is currently able to fly in arms it is supplying to the
Azeris, the notion that it has the ability to send personnel needed
for refueling, rescue or other services that the IAF might need in
the event of an attack on Iran does not seem to be such a flight of
fancy.
Yaari also has a cogent criticism when he ponders how exactly the
authoritarian government of Azerbaijan could hope to get away with
defying Iran as Tehran has been so helpful to the Azeris in their
conflict with Armenia. He also might have asked whether Russia would
tolerate such behavior. But to ask such questions is not the same
thing as having proof that the Azeris are not contemplating life
after Iran’s regional ambitions are cut down to size by an Israeli
attack. Moreover, as Yaari himself readily concedes, the fact that
Azerbaijan “maintains close relations with Israel including big arms
and oil deals,” it is also not unreasonable to assume that the
conflict with Iran is now part of that equation.
Yaari seems to infer that because Perry has no love for Israel, his
effort to publicize the Israel-Azeri alliance is to undermine it.
Yaari also appears to believe that any story whose premise is based
on the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran is similarly ill-
intentioned. But that brings us back to what I have always thought
was just as important as the idea of the air bases themselves: why
the Obama administration leaked it in the first place.
Rather than breaking our heads on the question of just how far the
Azeris are prepared to go in defying Iran for the sake of their
friendship with Israel (the answer to which is as much a mystery to
Yaari as it is to me), we would all do better to consider why it was
so important for the State Department and the White House that this
friendship be placed in jeopardy. Those pondering what a second term
for President Obama would mean to Israel need to think more about the
leakers’ motives than those of Perry or the editors at Foreign
Policy.
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