The U.S. can meet Israel halfway on Iran (WASHINGTON POST) By Dennis Ross and David Makovsky 03/31/12)
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-can-meet-israel-halfway-on-iran/2012/03/30/gIQA1qS7lS_story.html
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There is no daylight between the United States and Israel on the
objective and the preferred means for dealing with Iranian nuclear
ambitions. Much has been written about possible differences, but the
recent meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu highlighted key points of convergence: Both agree that the
objective is prevention, not containment, and that a nuclear Iran
could set off an arms race in an already-dangerous region. The
heightened risk of a nuclear war in the Middle East is, in essence,
why Obama has indicated that the issue is in the “American national
interest.”
The two leaders agree that a peaceful solution to ensuring that Iran
does not achieve nuclear weapons is preferable. Iran faces sanctions
that are tougher than ever before, giving diplomacy a chance to
succeed in a way that it has not.
Any differences between the two countries stem from a basic reality:
The United States, given its significantly greater military
capability, can afford to wait longer than Israel to give diplomacy
time to succeed. From Israel’s perspective, as Defense Minister Ehud
Barak has explained, there will come a point when, if no action is
taken, the depth and breadth of the Iranian nuclear program will
force Israel to forgo its military option. Forgoing the use of force
against an existential threat would be a historic decision for any
Israeli prime minister and goes against that country’s ethos of self-
reliance.
That said, Israeli military action need not be imminent or
inevitable. After his meeting with Obama, Netanyahu said the time
frame for the possible use of force is measured “not in days or
weeks” but “also not in years.” Although Obama has noted that
the “window” for diplomacy is “closing,” there is space for it to
work.
Will diplomacy complicate efforts to synchronize the U.S. and Israeli
clocks? Possibly, but here again we see more convergence than
divergence. The United States, like Israel, has limits. Perhaps that
is why Obama has also said that he is not bluffing, essentially
signaling to Iran that this is its last chance: If Tehran wants to
avoid military action against its nuclear program, it must take the
diplomatic route that remains available.
Given the stakes, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program is a global
responsibility. It is important that any military action be widely
accepted internationally as a direct consequence of Iran’s
intransigence. If force is used, it must be because Iran brought it
upon itself. Under such circumstances, it is far more likely that
after the strike the world will be able to preserve the sanctions
against Iran and maintain its international isolation. These are
crucial if Iran is to be prevented from reconstituting its nuclear
program.
With negotiations among Iran and the five permanent members of the
U.N. Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) set to begin April 13,
there is a need to assuage the Israeli fear that negotiations will
drag on beyond a point at which Israel would lose its military
option. Several actions could reconcile the U.S. and Israeli
timetables with the ongoing diplomacy.
First, Washington should reassure Israel that it will be looking for
concrete and verifiable signs that Iran is prepared to comply with
its obligations on the nuclear program. Second, U.S. officials should
discuss these concrete signs with the Israelis and consult with them
about the ongoing negotiations. Third, Washington should discuss a
time frame with the Israelis and the P5+1 during which progress must
be made in the negotiations to justify their continuation. This must
be conveyed to the Iranians as well. Fourth, the United States should
make publicly clear that while it is serious about giving diplomacy a
chance, it will not engage in a phony process; that time is running
out for diplomacy to work and obviate the alternative — the use of
force.
Because Israel is the only country that Iran has repeatedly
threatened to “wipe off the map,” it is reasonable for it to have
some input into the objectives of diplomacy and the timetable for
progress in negotiations. The more Israelis feel their views are
being taken into account, the more inclined they will be to give
diplomacy a chance to work before resorting to force. Israel should
also understand that if diplomacy fails and force proves necessary,
the context in which force is used will be critical. A strike on Iran
is likely to be limited in value if it is not followed by a sustained
international sanctions effort to avoid importation of key material
to reconstitute Iran’s nuclear program.
It is possible to synchronize the U.S. and Israeli clocks and give
diplomacy a chance to work. Ironically, the better these timetables
are aligned, and the more Tehran understands this reality, the more
likely the Iranians are to see that if they want to avoid force being
used against them, they must take advantage of the diplomatic out
that the United States is offering. (© 2010 The Washington Post
Company 03/31/12)
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