Home  > Historical Perspectives
´Iran could recover from military strike in 6 months´ (JERUSALEM POST) By BLOOMBERG 03/29/12)Source: http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=263852 JERUSALEM POST JERUSALEM POST Articles-Index-TopPublishers-Index-Top
Iran’s “workshops” for making nuclear centrifuges and components for the devices are widely dispersed and hidden, adding to the difficulties of a potential military strike by Israel, according to a new report by US congressional researchers. A senior official surmised that Iran could recover from a military strike on its centrifuge facilities within six months.

Neither Israel nor the US is certain of the locations of all such facilities, analysts for the Congressional Research Service wrote in the report obtained Wednesday. The analysts cited interviews with current and former US government officials familiar with the issue who weren’t identified.

Israel’s capability to halt or set back Iran’s nuclear program through a military strike has been central to the debate over whether Israel should undertake such a mission alone. While US President Barack Obama has urged more time for economic sanctions to work, Israeli officials led by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak say it may soon be too late to prevent Iran from developing the capability to develop a nuclear weapon.

The likelihood of dispersed facilities complicates any assessment of a potential raid’s success, making it “unclear what the ultimate effect of a strike would be on the likelihood of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons,” the report found.

A US official said in April 2011 that there “could be lots of workshops’ in Iran,” the authors said. Last month, a former US government official with “direct experience” in the issue told the researchers that “Iran’s centrifuge production is widely distributed and that the number of workshops has probably multiplied ‘many times’ since 2005 because of an increase in Iranian contractors and subcontractors working on the program.”

“An attack that left Iran’s conversion and centrifuge production facilities intact would considerably reduce” the time Iran would need to resume its nuclear work, said the congressional researchers led by Jim Zanotti, a Middle Eastern affairs specialist. He wrote the report with analysts Kenneth Katzman, Jeremiah Gertler and Steven Hildreth.

Israel, the US and European allies say they are concerned that Iran may begin trying to produce the highly enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is intended solely to generate power and for medical research. Centrifuges spin at high speeds to separate uranium isotopes.

Michael Hayden, a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said in January “that neither the US nor Israel knows the location of all key Iranian nuclear-related facilities,” according to the congressional researchers.

Assessments vary on how much impact a military attack would have on Iran’s centrifuge facilities. An executive branch official who wasn’t named told the research service last month that Iran doesn’t have enough spare centrifuges or components to install new devices immediately, the authors wrote. A former official said the same day that Iran probably could rebuild or replicate most centrifuge workshops within six months, the researchers said.

Nuclear inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have sought for years to regain access to centrifuge workshops.

“The agency’s knowledge of Iran’s workshops has deteriorated since Iran ended this access in early 2006,” the researchers wrote.

The IAEA wrote in a November 2007 report that the agency’s knowledge of Iran’s program was “diminishing” because of restricted access to centrifuge workshops, even though Iranian answers about its past centrifuge programs were “consistent” with inspectors’ findings. (© 1995-2011, The Jerusalem Post 03/29/12)

Return to Top