Diversionary war games (ISRAEL HAYOM OP-ED) Zalman Shoval 03/22/12)
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1607
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It appears that the U.S. government has made a decision, oddly timed
to coincide with the IDF chief of staff’s visit to Washington, to
increase the pressure. Not necessarily on Iran, mind you, but on
Israel. The aim of this pressure is to limit Israel’s freedom to act
against the Iranian nuclear threat. The method: periodic leaking of
supposedly top secret information to The New York Times.
This time the leak pertained to war games, or a “classified war
simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli
attack on Iran.” The conclusions of this simulation were that “the
strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the
United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead.”
The newspaper quoted, though indirectly, Gen. James Mattis, the
commander of the United States Army´s Central Command, as having said
that an Israeli strike was “likely to have dire consequences”
affecting the U.S. military and the entire region.
The New York Times did concede that the conclusions of this
particular simulation were not “the only possible outcome,” but
stressed that (and presumably this was the aim of those who leaked
the story) the conclusions of this exercise would “give stronger
voice to those in the White House, Pentagon and intelligence
community who have warned that a strike could prove perilous for the
United States.”
According to the sources cited in the article, any Israeli offensive
would only delay the Iranian nuclear bomb by two years at most, and
an American attack would only delay the Iranians by an “additional
two years.” In other words, these sources believe that it is next to
impossible to fully block the Iranian nuclear effort, and therefore
it would be best simply to accept it. They are urging a policy of
containment – precisely what U.S. President Barack Obama declared he
wouldn’t do in his AIPAC speech earlier this month.
Prior to this leak, The New York Times ran another article that also
addressed the futility of a military attack in Iran, citing exactly
the same reasoning – the short delay that would be achieved in Iran’s
development of a nuclear weapon. This opinion was presented as
relying on the assessments of the Israeli Mossad, which, as they
would have it, has become convinced that the American trepidation is
a more appropriate position than the "warmongering" attitude in
Jerusalem.
All this raises alarming questions regarding the U.S.’s attitude
toward a possible military strike on Iran, and on how determined the
U.S. really is to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear power.
Presumably, Iranian leaders are gleefully reading these New York
Times leaks and coming to the same conclusion.
Without doubting the sincerity of Obama’s declarations, one is
allowed to wonder what he meant when he said that he has “a policy to
prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” when in reality,
voices in Washington are saying the opposite. One gets the impression
that the emphasis on American victims (as a result of an Israeli
strike) is designed to stir hostility among the American public, just
like Israel and the Jews were slandered not too long ago and made to
look like it was us who dragged the U.S. into a war in Iraq.
Israel is the last country that can be accused of not knowing the
dangers of war. There is no one who hopes that diplomatic measures
will stop Iran’s nuclearization more than Israel. Despite this
overriding desire, Israel could put Obama’s declaration –
that “Israel must always have the ability to defend itself, by
itself, against any threat” – to the test. It may also force the U.S.
to prove its mantra that “Israel’s security is sacrosanct.”
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