Livni will top Mofaz in Israel´s Kadima primary, poll says (HAŽARETZ NEWS) By Ophir Bar-Zohar 03/22/12)
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Opposition leader Tzipi Livni will win the Kadima primary on Tuesday,
a new poll says, contradicting other surveys that say MK Shaul Mofaz
will become the centrist party´s next leader.
In the poll released on Wednesday, Livni was backed by 46 percent of
Kadima members while Mofaz was backed by 36 percent, reported
journalist and blogger Tal Schneider. Market researcher Dafna
Goldberg-Anaby conducted the survey. The results are in line with a
poll of Kadima members by Dichter´s campaign two weeks ago. But many
politicians and political analysts say they expect Mofaz to win the
primary. In any case, many pollsters have serious doubts about
surveys on party primaries, which have often proved inaccurate.
MK Avi Dichter, who also seeks to head the party, won 9 percent of
the vote in the latest poll. Livni had even greater support among
Kadima members who said they would definitely vote in the leadership
election: 51 percent compared with 38 percent for Mofaz and just 3
percent for Dichter.
The poll of 400 Kadima members was conducted at the beginning of the
week. Almost 40 percent of the respondents said they intended to vote
in the primary.
Mofaz has slightly greater support among non-Jewish voters than
Livni. She draws support equally from both men and women, while Mofaz
is more popular among men. Dichter enjoys slightly greater support
among women than men. As for age groups, Livni has greater support
among older voters and Mofaz is favored by the young. Dichter´s
support is spread out evenly over the age brackets.
Primary polls are also considered unreliable because of a lack of
cooperation among voters in Israel´s Arab community. A quarter of
Kadima members are Arabs.
Schneider asked for financial support for the poll from her blog´s
readers; she raised NIS 6,900 in a few days. She encouraged people to
contribute via Facebook, and 84 people gave money, with the donations
ranging from NIS 25 to NIS 500.
If you contributed at least NIS 100, you will be allowed a guest blog
post. If you gave NIS 250, Schneider will write about you, and for
NIS 500 you learned the results of the poll 12 hours before they were
released to the public. (© Copyright 2012 Ha´aretz 03/22/12)
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