Opposition leader Tzipi Livni will win the Kadima primary on Tuesday, a new poll says, contradicting other surveys that say MK Shaul Mofaz will become the centrist party´s next leader.

In the poll released on Wednesday, Livni was backed by 46 percent of Kadima members while Mofaz was backed by 36 percent, reported journalist and blogger Tal Schneider. Market researcher Dafna Goldberg-Anaby conducted the survey. The results are in line with a poll of Kadima members by Dichter´s campaign two weeks ago. But many politicians and political analysts say they expect Mofaz to win the primary. In any case, many pollsters have serious doubts about surveys on party primaries, which have often proved inaccurate.

MK Avi Dichter, who also seeks to head the party, won 9 percent of the vote in the latest poll. Livni had even greater support among Kadima members who said they would definitely vote in the leadership election: 51 percent compared with 38 percent for Mofaz and just 3 percent for Dichter.

The poll of 400 Kadima members was conducted at the beginning of the week. Almost 40 percent of the respondents said they intended to vote in the primary.

Mofaz has slightly greater support among non-Jewish voters than Livni. She draws support equally from both men and women, while Mofaz is more popular among men. Dichter enjoys slightly greater support among women than men. As for age groups, Livni has greater support among older voters and Mofaz is favored by the young. Dichter´s support is spread out evenly over the age brackets.

Primary polls are also considered unreliable because of a lack of cooperation among voters in Israel´s Arab community. A quarter of Kadima members are Arabs.

Schneider asked for financial support for the poll from her blog´s readers; she raised NIS 6,900 in a few days. She encouraged people to contribute via Facebook, and 84 people gave money, with the donations ranging from NIS 25 to NIS 500.

If you contributed at least NIS 100, you will be allowed a guest blog post. If you gave NIS 250, Schneider will write about you, and for NIS 500 you learned the results of the poll 12 hours before they were released to the public. (© Copyright 2012 Ha´aretz 03/22/12)