Is an Israeli Strike on Iran Inevitable? (COMMENTARY MAGAZINE) Seth Mandel 02/28/12)
Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/02/28/israeli-strike-on-iran/#more-785322
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The Associated Press is getting some attention for its article
alleging that Israel will not warn the U.S. if it decides to launch a
preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Kimberly Dozier
reports:
The pronouncement, delivered in a series of private, top-level
conversations with U.S. officials, sets a tense tone ahead of
meetings in the coming days at the White House and on Capitol Hill.
Israeli officials said that if they eventually decide a strike is
necessary, they would keep the Americans in the dark to decrease the
likelihood that the U.S. would be held responsible for failing to
stop Israel’s potential attack, said one U.S. intelligence official
familiar with the discussions. The U.S. has been working with the
Israelis for months to convince them that an attack would be only a
temporary setback to Iran’s nuclear program.
It seems unlikely Israel would do this unless the Obama
administration is requesting plausible deniability–something
indicated by the second sentence in that quote. As usual, it’s
doubtful the unnamed source knows as much as the reporter would like
him to know, but the administration should be furious with this
particular leaker. Telling reporters the Obama administration
believes an attack on Iran would only be a temporary setback and is
therefore inadvisable is that unnamed source’s way of telling Iran
that all options are not on the table, and that the credible threat
of force has either been removed or is in the process of being
removed from the equation, thus undermining any negotiations the
administration insists it wants to hold.
That’s not the only way this unnamed source is attempting to sabotage
the Obama administration’s Iran policy. Later on in the article we
learn that Republican Congressman Mike Rogers, chairman of the
Intelligence Committee, and his Democratic counterpart, Dutch
Ruppersberger, met with the Israeli leadership as well. According to
Ruppersberger, they discussed “presenting a unified front to Iran, to
counter the media reports that the two countries are at odds over how
and when to attack Iran.”
One presumes the Obama administration’s anger at this unnamed source
will be tempered by their ability to find humor in Ruppersberger
explaining to the Associated Press the U.S. and Israel are trying to
present a united front for an article about how the U.S. and Israel
are unable to present a united front.
This wouldn’t be the first time there was confusion about Israel’s
coordination with the U.S. about such a strike. In Ronald Reagan’s
diaries, the former president writes of Menachem Begin after Israel
destroyed the Osirak reactor in Iraq, “He should have told us & the
French.” In an entry a week later, he writes:
We have just learned that Israel & the previous Admin. did
communicate about Iraq & the nuclear threat & the U.S. agreed it was
a threat. There was never a mention of this to us by the outgoing
admin. Amb. Lewis cabled word to us after the Israeli attack on Iraq
& now we find there was a stack of cables & memos tucked away in St.
Dept. files.
Jimmy Carter was an especially nasty politician, but sometimes I can
still be surprised by how willing he was to subvert and disrupt
American security–concerning something as serious and dangerous as
nuclear proliferation in the Middle East–in a vengeful fit about
losing the election.
But if the current administration is really unwilling to launch or
support a preemptive strike on Iran–as the AP’s source and Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta keep insisting–they will be wholly reliant on
other means to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Those means
will be weakened significantly if Panetta and other administration
officials keep telling reporters the Iranian leadership has nothing
to worry about. Those means will be further weakened if President
Obama continues trying to water down Iran sanctions and opposing
sanctions that garner all 100 votes in the Senate.
If Obama persists in his efforts to prevent tough Iran sanctions and
keeps signaling to Iran his administration has taken military action
off the table, the president is unlikely to find much success at the
negotiating table. All of which would, in turn, only encourage the
Israelis to take action themselves.
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