The Hamas split and the Palestinian political mess (JERUSALEM POST OP-ED) By BARRY RUBIN 02/20/12)
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There’s a serious split in Hamas, reflecting the growing civil war
among Islamists along Sunni-Shia lines. Each side is radical, but the
fact that they’re fighting among themselves weakens both of them.
The issues involved are tactical, not strategic. Indeed, what is
ironic is that Khaled Mashaal, who historically has been described as
the radical, is following the approach that will seem moderate to the
naïve, while Ismail Haniyeh, described by the naive as the moderate,
is leading the ostensibly more radical faction.
Mashaal signed a deal with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas
for a coalition between Hamas and the PA. Of course, neither partner
trusts the other in the least. Mashal wants to take over the PA;
Abbas wants to tame Hamas and recapture the Gaza Strip or – at least –
present the Palestinians as united to the world in order to demand a
state now without any need to make peace with Israel.
In contrast, Haniyeh claims that this deal is a sell-out to the PA’s
cowardly compromisers. Haniyeh was just in Tehran, where his hosts
repeatedly warned him against the “compromising” traitors in Hamas’s
ranks. Of course, the deal with the PA is nothing of the sort.
What lies behind this split is the broader conflict between the Sunni
and Shia Islamist camps. Haniyeh is siding with the Iranians, who
have a lot of money but are Shia; Mashaal is linking up with the
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which borders on the Gaza Strip, is
Sunni, is now gaining power in Egypt and belongs to the same
organization as Hamas.
I’m putting my money on Mashaal. The Iranians can provide money, but
only the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood can ultimately be a real patron
on the ground, forwarding money, men, weapons and material goods to
the Gaza Strip. If Hamas goes to war with Israel again it will be
Egypt, not Iran (even if it has nuclear weapons) that will matter in
But there’s another irony here that makes sense. Mashaal has spent
most of his time outside of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Thus, he has had more contact with Iran. Haniyeh has been actually
running the Gaza Strip to a large extent and thus has more contact
with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. I guess familiarity breeds
contempt. Each man is trying to escape the orbit of the powerful big
brother he has been dealing with all these years.
The PA will not dominate Hamas and take over the Gaza Strip. Nor will
Hamas be able to seize power in the West Bank, in part because Israel
won’t allow that to happen.
And here’s still another irony.
Since Haniyeh is against the deal, he and his allies will make sure
that Fatah cannot campaign freely in the Gaza Strip.
The projected PA elections will never come off and the Hamas-PA deal
will break down, probably within the next six months. Yet the battle
between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (aided by the Jordanian
branch) and Iran over influencing Hamas will continue.
In short, all of Hamas remains radical, and the only difference is
over how best to wipe out Israel and commit genocide against the
Jews. The Palestinians also remain badly divided. None of the
leadership can deliver peace with Israel and none of these leaders
want peace (and a Palestinian state based on a two-state solution)
enough to make the compromises necessary to achieve it.
There is still another important element in Palestinian politics
receiving almost no attention: the future leadership of the PA and
Fatah. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad is a relatively honest, relatively
moderate technocrat. All of Hamas and most of Fatah loathe him. He
only holds his office because the Western donors want him there. Can
he last out this year or the next? The problem is that a PA-Hamas
deal requires either that Abbas or a Hamas leader becomes prime
Remember that the post of prime minister was originally created due
to Western insistence that someone be in a position to stop Yasser
Arafat, Abbas’s predecessor, from stealing the money being donated.
Then there’s Abbas himself. He has been ailing, and while his
periodic resignation threats have been phony ways of preserving his
leverage and getting things he wants, his retirement is only a matter
of time. It is hard to believe he will still be leading Fatah and the
PA by, say, December 2013.
Who will replace him? You can throw around various names, but don’t
bother. No one has the slightest idea. There is not a single serious
candidate. Presumably, the Fatah barons will make the choice.
Abbas originally got the job precisely because he was so weak.
None of the Fatah warlords or bosses felt threatened by a man with no
popular or organizational base of support.
It was also advantageous that Abbas was the most relatively moderate
of the Fatah leaders and would have the best image with the Western
governments and media.
Of course, when I say relatively moderate that should be considered
within the spectrum of Fatah leadership. Abbas is more aware of the
benefits of a compromise peace with Israel and more realistic about
Fatah’s inability to wipe it out.
Still, he is dead set on the idea that unless Israel agrees to take
back any Palestinian who can trace his ancestry to pre-1948
residence, there can be no peace.
If he is a tiny bit more willing to compromise on borders or anything
else, a combination of his weakness, intransigence, and knowledge of
public opinion and his colleagues’ views prevents him from ever doing
Abbas’s successor is almost certainly going to be more militant.
There are two main factions in Fatah, and hence in the PA. The Arafat
cronies, who are more corrupt and satisfied with the status quo, and
the Fatah radicals, who’d like to see another round of fighting
because they still believe in the group’s revolutionary ideology.
The latter group includes both older and younger – notably Marwan
Barghouti (he’s 53 years old but considered one of the young guard,
which tells you something, doesn’t it?) – people, who don’t work
In short, Palestinian politics are a mess. There are fewer real
moderates proportionately than you’ll find in any Arab state, where
they are also small minorities. Nobody can deliver peace; no one will
actually fight for a compromise peace agreement with Israel.
The whole “peace process” delusion is built on never actually
examining the real Palestinian political scene. Yearning for peace is
completely understandable; supporting a two-state solution is just
fine. But pretending to oneself that there’s any basis for these
things actually happening is quite unrealistic. (© 1995-2011, The
Jerusalem Post 02/20/12)
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