The Fantasy of Hizbullah Moderation (JCPA) JERUSALEM CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira Vol. 10, No. 2 23 May 2010)
Source: http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=3983&TTL=The_Fantasy_of_Hizbullah_Moderation
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-John Brennan, President Barack Obama´s advisor for homeland security
and counterterrorism, recently stated that the administration was
looking for ways to build up "moderate elements" within Hizbullah.
The fact that Hizbullah is part of the Iranian security apparatus did
not seem to affect his analysis of the organization.
-Immediately following the establishment of the Islamic Republic in
1979, Iran undertook a strategic decision to export the Islamic
Revolution to the Arab and Islamic expanse. In Iran a special
apparatus was formed to set up and support Islamic movements
throughout the Islamic and Arab world that were prepared to adopt
Iran´s model of Islamic rule. Lebanon was the first target selected,
given its unsettled political condition and its large Shiite
population which had maintained links with Iran for many years.
-Hizbullah is not a national Lebanese movement, as has been
frequently claimed in the West. Hizbullah´s leader, Hassan Nasrallah,
and his men are not loyal to the president of Lebanon or to the
government of Lebanon, but rather to Iranian leader Ayatollah
Khamenei. Nasrallah´s deputy, Sheikh Naim Qassem, admitted to the
Iranian Arabic-language television station al-Qawathar in March 2007
that Hizbullah requires permission from Iran´s supreme leadership for
its operations.
-In the words of U.S. Defense Secretary William Gates, one should
view Hizbullah´s military force - which extends far beyond the
military force of any other political movement in the world, as well
as beyond the force of many sovereign states - as the long arm of
Iran.
During a public appearance in Washington, John Brennan, President
Barack Obama´s advisor for homeland security and counterterrorism,
revealed that the administration was looking for ways to build
up "moderate elements" within Hizbullah which, he explained, had
evolved from being a "purely terrorist organization" to becoming a
part of the Lebanese political system. That Hizbullah was part of the
Iranian security apparatus did not seem to bother Brennan or affect
his analysis of the organization´s motives.
It was not the first time he had made this observation. Writing in
July 2008, Brennan suggested it was possible to increase
Hizbullah´s "stake in Lebanon´s struggling democratic process." While
acknowledging Iran´s material support for Hizbullah, he clearly
played down the Iranian role in the operational decisions made by the
organization´s leaders. For Brennan, Hizbullah was an authentically
Lebanese organization whose assimilation into Lebanon´s political
system should be encouraged by Washington.1 Moreover he observed that
as Hizbullah became a "vested player in the Lebanese political
system," there had been "a marked reduction in terrorist attacks
carried out by the organization." The key factor in any presentation
of Hizbullah as a potentially more moderate organization seeking to
integrate itself as another Lebanese political party was to downgrade
Iran´s role in Hizbullah decision-making.
Brennan was not alone in not fully grasping Iran´s pivotal role for
Hizbullah. A major 2009 study by the Rand Corporation on Iran
suggested that Hizbullah was "taking great pains to distance itself
from Iranian patronage."2
Even Israeli experts and politicians at times have seen Hizbullah as
primarily influenced by the Lebanese internal scene. A variation on
this theme is the notion that Hizbullah owed its origins and growth
over the years to the Israeli presence on Lebanese soil. For example,
in an interview marking a decade since the Israeli retreat from
Lebanon, Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated: "Hizbullah was
nonexistent when we went in; it was our stay there that established
it. Hizbullah got stronger not as a result of our exit from Lebanon
but as a result of our stay in Lebanon."3 With this statement, Barak
reinforced the erroneous argument purporting that Hizbullah was
established in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
The Birth of Hizbullah
The historical facts are totally different. Immediately following the
establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran undertook a
strategic decision to export the Islamic Revolution to the Arab and
Islamic expanse. For this purpose, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
appointed Ayatollah Ali Montazeri to create the "second revolution."
In Iran a special apparatus was formed, staffed by Montazeri´s men,
whose job was to set up and support Islamic movements throughout the
Islamic and Arab world that were prepared to adopt Iran´s model of
Islamic rule.4
Lebanon was the first target selected, given its unsettled political
condition and its large Shiite population which had maintained links
with Iran for many years. During the 1970s Lebanon had become the
crucible for the senior Iranian revolutionary leadership. There its
leaders took refuge and trained with weapons. Khomeini´s tape-
recorded messages were also produced in Lebanon and then disseminated
throughout Iran to spread the imam´s doctrine.5
The Iranian drive to take over the Amal movement, the dominant Shiite
movement in Lebanon prior to 1982, was unsuccessful. Amal refused to
accept the principle of Vali-e Faqih, a fundamental principle of the
Islamic Republic that mandated religious and political fealty to the
Iranian leader. Amal refused because it viewed itself first and
foremost as a Lebanese movement loyal to the Lebanese state. The
Iranians sought a new Shiite movement that would be loyal to Iran.
After Iran failed in its attempt to take over Amal, Tehran made a
decision to establish a Shiite movement that would constitute an
alternative to Amal and would faithfully represent Iranian
aspirations in Lebanon. The task of setting up the new movement was
entrusted to the Iranian ambassador in Damascus, Ali Akbar
Mohtashemi, prior to the First Lebanon War in summer 1982.6
Mohtashemi formed the "Lebanon Council" which included
representatives of pro-Iranian Shiite movements. He headed that body
until the consolidation of all the Lebanese Shiite movements that
opposed and/or had split off from Amal, and then founded Hizbullah.7
Iran exploited the governmental vacuum that was created following the
Lebanon War in 1982, and sent to Lebanon a task force of some 1,500
Revolutionary Guard instructors and fighters. Their job was to train
and advise those who were the first to join Hizbullah and assist in
the formation of the new movement´s institutions, whose nucleus had
been established in Baalbek. Hizbullah´s second leader, Abbas
Moussawi, took part in the first Revolutionary Guard course in
Lebanon.
There is no doubt that the First Lebanon War, as well as the entry of
the multinational force with the participation of American, British,
French, and Italian military contingents, served as a glaring target
for Hizbullah and accelerated its military empowerment. Furthermore,
the prolonged Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon (1982-2000)
greased the wheels of Hizbullah´s Islamic revolution and led to its
military, political, and social build-up. The Lebanese state failed
to impose its governmental authority on the Shiites in southern
Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Beirut. The monopoly on the
use of force, a major constituent of state sovereignty, was
expropriated by Hizbullah from the Lebanese government.
The Hizbullah militia under the authority of Hassan Nasrallah is
inordinately more powerful than the Lebanese army under the command
of the Lebanese president, and the system of civil institutions built
by Hizbullah provides more effective answers to the needs of the
population than those supplied by the Lebanese government. Indeed, in
2002 the monthly salary of a worker in the Hizbullah civilian
apparatus ranged between $600 and $800, while the salary of Lebanese
government workers did not exceed $500 a month.8
Hizbullah and the Failure of the Lebanese State
Hizbullah is not a national Lebanese movement, as has been frequently
claimed in the West, although it is represented in the Lebanese
parliament by virtue of a special dispensation granted by Iranian
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 1992.9 The movement has been
represented in the Lebanese government since 2005, following the
departure of Syrian forces from Lebanon. Nasrallah acts as the
personal emissary of Khamenei in Lebanon. He and his men are not
loyal to the president of Lebanon or to the government of Lebanon,
but rather to the Iranian leader who is the Marja-e Taqlid (source of
emulation), the Vali-e Faqih who has the ultimate say within the
organization.
This loyalty is not purely religious, and it is totally different
from the authority exercised by the pope in the Vatican. This
involves political subordination in every shape and form. Indeed, in
March 2007, Nasrallah´s deputy, Sheikh Naim Qassem, admitted to the
Iranian Arabic-language television station al-Qawathar that Hizbullah
requires permission from Iran´s supreme leadership for its
operations.10
For this reason, one should view Hizbullah´s military force - which
extends far beyond the military force of any other political movement
in the world, as well as beyond the force of many sovereign states -
as the long arm of Iran, in the words of U.S. Defense Secretary
William Gates. Since 2006, and the strengthening of the strategic
pact between Iran and Syria that intensified the military empowerment
of Hizbullah, it appears that the Syrian president as well regards
Hizbullah as his long arm. The growth of this Iranian and Syrian
proxy on the soil of a failed Lebanese state that has forfeited its
sovereignty makes Hizbullah the real ruler of Lebanon. It is just a
matter of time for the process to mature into a Hizbullah decision to
translate its demographic power into political currency and establish
the Islamic Republic of Lebanon.
The Danger of Misreading Hizbullah
Misreading Hizbullah can lead to policy errors. In 2000 it was
popularly thought that if Israel unilaterally withdrew from southern
Lebanon, then Hizbullah would lose its motivation to keep fighting
and would dissolve into a political party that would disarm. Yet it
was precisely after the Israeli pullout when Hizbullah began its
massive build-up of rockets, including long-range Iranian rockets
that were ultimately used in the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
Some analysts have also tried to identify moderate trends in
Hizbullah by drawing a false distinction between its "military wing"
and its "political wing." This differentiation between different
wings of Hizbullah was advanced by the British government in early
2009. As Middle East expert Tony Badran has astutely observed, this
is a false distinction.11 As he notes, Nasrallah´s deputy, Naim
Qassem, told the Los Angeles Times last year that Hizbullah´s
leadership controls both the social welfare work of the organization
as well as its jihadi activities: "The same leadership that directs
the parliamentary and government work also leads jihad actions." In
other words, Hizbullah is a highly centralized organization.12
Hizbullah´s own analysis of itself contradicts what Brennan has been
writing and stating in recent years.
Today, saying that Hizbullah has moderate elements that have moved
away from terrorism can lead the political echelons in the West to
ignore how Hizbullah is serving its Iranian sponsors by directly
threatening Israel´s civilian population. On May 20, 2010, Hizbullah
military sources boasted to the Kuwaiti daily al-Rai that Israel will
be bombarded with 15 tons of explosives a day if a future war breaks
out.13 Hizbullah clearly does not care about the implications of its
military build-up for the people of Lebanon, because it only seeks to
serve the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Notes
1. John Brennan, "The Conundrum of Iran: Strengthening Moderates
without Acquiescing to Belligerence," Annals of the American Academy
of Political and Social Science, 618, July 2008.
2. Frederick Wherey et al., Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring
the Reach and Limitation of Iranian Power in the Middle East (Rand,
2009). See also Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson, "Disarming
Hezbollah," Foreign Affairs website, January 11, 2010.
3. Yediot Ahronot [Hebrew], May 7, 2010. Barak told Newsweek on July
18, 2006: "When we entered Lebanon...there was no Hezbollah. We were
accepted with perfumed rice and flowers by the Shia in the south. It
was our presence there that created Hezbollah." Quoted by Augustus
Richard Norton, Hezbollah: A Short History (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 2007), p. 33.
4. Shimon Shapira, Hizbullah between Iran and Lebanon (Hakibbutz
Hameuhad, 2000), p. 90.
5. For information about the Iranians who operated in Lebanon, see
the first chapter in the important compendium, H.E. Chehabi, ed.,
Distant Relations: Iran and Lebanon in the Last 500 Years (Oxford:
Centre for Lebanese Studies and I.B.Tauris, 2006).
6. Manal Lutfi, "Syria: Between Tehran and Hizbullah," Asharq al-
Awsat, June 16, 2008.
7. Shapira, op. cit., pp. 134-139.
8. Dima Danawi, Hizbullah´s Pulse: Into the Dilemma of the al-Shahid
and Jihad al-Bina Foundations (Beirut: 2002), p. 50, n. 30.
9. Naim Qassem, Hizbullah: The Story from Within (London: Saqi,
2005), p. 191.
10. http://www.terrorism-
info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/pdf/hezbollah_e0407.pdf.
11. Tony Badran, "Hezbollah is Not the IRA," Now Lebanon, February 2,
2010.
12. This point is made in Michael Young, "A Foolish Quest in
Hezbollahland," Now Lebanon, May 21, 2010.
13. "Hizbullah Sources: Israel Will Be Bombarded with 15 Tons of
Explosives a Day in Case of War," Naharnet, May 20, 2010,
http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform
&C57030D6D391B08DC2257727004D2935.
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