Israel´s Foreign Policy in the Shadow of Iran and the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict (JCPA) JERUSALEM CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS) Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon Vol. 9, No. 16 01/31/10)
Source: http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=3251&TTL=Israel's_Foreign_Policy_in_the_Shadow_of_Iran_and_the_Palestinian-Israeli_Conflict
JCPA-Jerusalem Center Public Affairs
JCPA-Jerusalem Center Public Affairs Articles-Index-Top
Publishers-Index-Top
-Israel must simultaneously pursue three interdependent tracks for
advancing Israeli-Palestinian relations: capacity-building measures
that foster the rule of law within the Palestinian Authority,
regional economic cooperation, and meaningful political dialogue.
-Although conducting dialogue with the Palestinians is a matter
of
utmost importance for Israel, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam
Fayyad´s recent plan to unilaterally declare statehood after a two-
year state-building process is unrealistic. The emergence of a future
Palestinian state will only be a result of consensus and successful
negotiations, not an artificial timeline.
-If we are to proceed
with a viable diplomatic process with the
Palestinians, it is critically important to curb malign Iranian
influence in the region and its support of terror proxies like
Hizbullah and Hamas.
-Challenging the Iranian bid for hegemony,
however, is not the
responsibility of Israel alone, but of the larger international
community, which must make it clear to the regime led by Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad that there is a steep price to pay for its continued
violations of international norms and UN resolutions.
During
World War II, David Ben-Gurion famously said: "We must assist
the British in the war as if there were no White Paper and we must
resist the White Paper as if there were no war." Today Israel seems
determined to solve the Palestinian issue as if there were no Iranian
threat, and as part of the international community it is determined
to remove the Iranian threat as if there were no Palestinian issue.
Yet the two problems share a common root.
Palestinian Tracks
At the moment there are three ongoing tracks for Israeli-
Palestinian
relations. Although they are in different stages of evolution, they
should be pursued simultaneously.
First, there are capacity-
building measures. The Israeli government
supports the U.S.-led multinational effort to train the Palestinian
Authority´s security forces in the West Bank, headed by Lt. Gen.
Keith Dayton. We also value the European Union´s efforts to bolster
the rule of law and law enforcement norms within the Palestinian
Authority. More steps should be taken to insure a transparent
Palestinian culture of governance that includes the right
institutions, a separation of powers, and the rule of law. We would
like to see a state which can take care of itself, behaves
responsibly vis-à-vis both its citizens and other nations, and abides
by international norms.
The second track is that of economic
development. Israel wishes to
see Palestinians enjoy the same standard of living every human being
deserves. Already there are positive changes in standard of living
indicators in the Palestinian Authority: unemployment is down,
tourism is up, and there is an 8 percent GDP growth in the West Bank.
But in order to create thousands of Palestinian jobs, a goal which
lies within easy reach, we need a kind of Marshall Plan to build an
industrial base. Even as the Israeli government has done much in this
respect by allowing access and movement of goods, Arab countries
could be doing much more. Both the Americans and Europeans have
called on the Arab League to pitch in. And Saudi Arabia, enriched by
its trillions of dollars from oil exports, is well placed to make a
significant contribution to improving the Palestinian economy.
Capacity-building and economic cooperation can usher in
progress on
the third track, political dialogue, which must be pursued
simultaneously with the other two tracks. Whatever the date of the
next Palestinian Authority elections, I believe that within a few
months we could see the initiation of a meaningful dialogue.
Certainly that is Israel´s intention. We want to resume a peace
process with no preconditions. As we do not demand that the
Palestinians agree to preconditions, we will not accept any
preconditions imposed on us.
Yet, strangely, the dialogue was
severed by the Palestinian side
despite the fact that the same Palestinian Authority administration
that conducted an intensive dialogue with the last Israeli government
is still in power. Nothing has changed except the administrations in
Washington and Jerusalem. Since Benjamin Netanyahu was elected prime
minister, however, Israel´s offer to meet with PA President Mahmoud
Abbas without preconditions was rebuffed. The same offer came from
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Meanwhile, even low-level
meetings have not been held with Palestinian representatives for the
simple reason that the Palestinians choose not to meet with us.
The cornerstone of dialogue is already in place: it was laid
out in
the Bush letter of April 14, 2004, which committed the United States
to defensible borders for Israel, to Israel´s retention of major
settlement blocs, and on the refugee issue suggested that all
Palestinian refugees return to the future Palestinian state rather
than Israel. But Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad´s recent
plan to unilaterally declare statehood after a two-year state-
building process is unrealistic. The emergence of a future
Palestinian state will only be a result of consensus and successful
negotiations, not an artificial timeline.
Conducting dialogue
with the Palestinians is a matter of utmost
importance for Israel. It is in our interest as well as theirs, as it
is in the interest of our neighboring Arab states and beyond. Because
that dialogue must proceed as fast as possible on multiple tracks,
trying to single out an issue like settlements was a misstep, not
only from a moral but also from a political point of view as well.
Instead, a wide array of topics ought to be discussed: territory,
resources, sovereignty, independence, demilitarization, what is
euphemistically called "the right of return," Jerusalem, settlements,
terror, incitement, and recognizing Israel for what it determines
itself to be - a Jewish state.
The Iranian Connection
If
we are to proceed with a viable diplomatic process with the
Palestinians, however, Israel must remove the obstacles that arise in
the form of terror organizations such as Hamas, Hizbullah, Islamic
Jihad, and other groups that have sought to derail the process. These
organizations are receiving Iranian support at ever increasing
volumes. After the Gaza operation, for example, Hamas has not only
been able to replenish all its losses in military equipment, but has
even upgraded its rocket capabilities by obtaining missiles which
have put Tel Aviv within target range. Hamas is almost exclusively
supported by Iranian funds, training, and equipment. The same is true
of Hizbullah and other terror organizations through which Iran is
seeking to undermine Sunni governments in the region. So to achieve
better prospects for dialogue with the Palestinians - without the
threats of terror, extremism, and incitement - it is critically
important to curb local Iranian influence.
Indeed, today all
the worst threats to the Middle East originate in
Iran. Lebanon is a case in point. The most urgent threat to the
Lebanese people comes not from Israel or the West, but from
Hizbullah - an Iranian organ which represents Iranian interests, not
Lebanese ones. Other countries in the region are similarly affected.
Large terror rings operated by Hizbullah have been discovered in
Egypt, Morocco, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. Closer to home, it is clear
that the main obstacle to the viability of the Palestinian Authority
is Hamas, which, although it is a Sunni organization, is backed by
the Iranians. Iran is also trying to recruit Israelis, and is helping
Islamic Jihad and other terror organizations to perpetrate attacks in
Israel.
Yet the Iranian menace is hardly limited to the Middle
East alone.
Iran was behind the bombing of the Israeli Embassy in 1992, in which
30 people were killed, as well as the July 1994 bombing of the Jewish
community center in Buenos Aires that left some 100 people dead.
General Ahmad Vahidi, today the defense minister of Iran, is wanted
by Interpol for masterminding the 1994 attack. More recently, Hugo
Chavez has turned Venezuela into a kind of forward base for the
Iranians in South America, and Hizbullah terrorist cells now operate
on the Venezuela-Colombia border.
Iran - a radical regime with
an extreme ideology - remains a country
with global as well as regional ambitions. The Iranians talk about
hegemony, and about the return of the Twelfth Imam, also known as the
Hidden Imam or the Mahdi. Claiming direct contact with Allah, the
country´s clerics believe that they are ordained to rule the Middle
East by Shari´a. They also believe that the glory days of Islam are
still ahead. Most troublingly, their missiles can reach Europe. Iran
is thus a world problem, not merely an Israeli problem. In a sense,
Israel is taking a back seat, hoping that the other 192 member states
of the United Nations will be able to halt further nuclear enrichment
in Iran and impose an effective monitoring mechanism. After all, it
is by no means preordained that Iran will attain nuclear weapons.
This eventuality can still be stopped.
The good news is that
the regime led by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has fewer
and fewer cards to play. As the post-election protests have
demonstrated, Iran is vulnerable both politically and socially. It
also remains economically weak, unable to withstand long-term
economic sanctions that could grind its economy to a halt and further
undermine the present regime. The international community must make
clear to the Iranians both that there is a steep price to pay for its
continued violations of UN resolutions, and also that the
international community stands united in purpose and in policy.
(Copyright © 2010 JCPA. 01/31/10)
Return to Top
MATERIAL REPRODUCED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY