This study dealing with Jerusalem’s future was written after the November 2007 Annapolis conference, at a time when voices in the Israeli government were advocating partitioning the city. The argument of the partition advocates speaks of the need to improve the demographic balance between Jews and Arabs in the city from the Jewish perspective by “subtracting” Arab neighborhoods from the city limits. Such a separation is presented as an unavoidable necessity, given the continued contraction of the Jewish majority in the city and the possibility that this trend will continue.

Given the appreciable dangers implicit in a partition of this type and given the Jewish people’s religious and historic link to Jerusalem and its holy sites, this study recommends contending with Jerusalem’s demographic problem in another manner – by addressing the principal factor behind the problem – the departure of Jews from Jerusalem (16,000 a year) – and attempting to check it.

The separation and partition approach incurs a series of losses and dangers:

- The subtraction of Arab neighborhoods – even if they are on the periphery of the city – is liable to appreciably increase the security dangers to the city’s Jewish residents, particularly for those living in neighborhoods bordering the Arab neighborhoods, primarily in terms of exposure to gunfire.

- In the wake of such partition and the transformation of many neighborhoods into border neighborhoods, tens of thousands of Jews may leave the city, as occurred following the wartime partition of the city in 1948. Then, 25,000 Jews, a quarter of the Jewish population, left the city.

- Tens of thousands of Arab residents may move to the Israeli side of the city. This has already begun to occur in response to the construction of the security fence, as tens of thousands of Palestinians have moved to the Israeli side of the fence. Israel will find it difficult to prevent a similar migration wave should the fence be moved further in the direction of the Jewish neighborhoods. And this time, the migration will be literally into the Jewish neighborhoods themselves, and not only into the Arab neighborhoods within Jerusalem’s boundaries.

- The proponents of partition hope to achieve a demographic gain. However, legal experts at the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies who recently examined this issue discovered that the residency status of the Arabs of eastern Jerusalem gives them the right of free passage to the western part of the city and to Israel, and even rights of residence everywhere in Jerusalem and in the State of Israel.

- It was further discovered in the framework of the same study that the Arabs of eastern Jerusalem may still be entitled to various social benefits, nullifying any projected “economic gain” as a result of partition.

- In addition, any such partition may damage the realization of Jewish rights and links to historical sites and holy places in the city.

Confronting the Demographic Problem

The high Arab birthrate as compared with the Jewish birthrate does influence the demographic picture in Jerusalem, but it is not the principal reason for the contraction of the Jewish majority. The major factor is a very high emigration rate of Jews from Jerusalem: every year about 16,000 Jews depart the city. In the last twenty years, 300,000 Jews have left Jerusalem.

There are methods for contending with this problem. Studies and surveys have revealed that the major reasons for the exodus can be attributed to employment difficulties and the high cost of apartments and living. Scores of government decisions, inter-ministerial committees, and teams of experts have proposed various methods to attract newcomers and prevent the departure of veteran residents. These include a series of benefits and financial incentives intended to make living in Jerusalem worthwhile and to encourage entrepreneurial efforts in the city. However, only a few of these decisions were ever implemented and most remain on paper. This study gives policy-makers a toolkit whose judicious use can significantly alter the emigration picture from Jerusalem, and thus alter the demographic trends.

Another important measure would be the establishment of a special super-municipality for the city of Jerusalem and the adjacent Jewish communities. At this stage we are dealing only with an administrative measure and not with the application of sovereignty, but it would signify that the city´s Jewish population comprises not only residents within the city’s municipal boundaries, but also residents in the administrative (albeit not sovereign) area of the super- municipality, such as the residents of Maale Adumim, Givat Zeev, and perhaps even the area of Mevasseret Jerusalem.

Security

The security chapter in this study surveys in detail the severe security dangers implicit in partitioning the city, and particularly the danger of gunfire from light weaponry and machine guns that the Palestinians possess and have already employed against the Gilo neighborhood a few years ago. Partition will expose the Jewish population living in a much more extensive area to similar gunfire. Partition may also expose Jerusalem neighborhoods to mortar fire.

Jerusalem became a major target of Palestinian terror attacks at the beginning of the decade: 210 of the city’s residents were killed, thousands were wounded, and heavy damage was done to the fabric of urban life.

The role of eastern Jerusalem Arabs in the terror grew substantially during those years. Thus, defending the city from terror requires holding on to the Arab neighborhoods of eastern Jerusalem that either abut or are very near to the Jewish neighborhoods. This hold is indispensable for interdiction and intelligence gathering, a factor proven to be true again and again in other theaters after Israeli withdrawals. Therefore, contending with the terror threat does not allow for the partitioning the city. Likewise, contending with the threat of war does not permit such moves since the defense the city in wartime against regular armies requires control over an even broader area than the existing jurisdictional boundaries.

The Holy Places

Jerusalem is sacred to the three monotheistic faiths: the Old City basin includes a series of sites sacred to Jews, Muslims and Christians, including the Temple Mount, the Western Wall, and the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. An analysis of the repercussions implicit in partitioning Jerusalem yields grave apprehension over the fate of free access and worship at the holy places for Jews and Christians located in the area of the Palestinian Authority, in the event that the city is partitioned. This apprehension surfaces in light of the series of harassments, humiliations and bullying perpetrated by the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinians in the areas under their control or nearby to places sacred to Judaism and Christianity.

Under Palestinian Authority rule, many Christians have left their homes and have emigrated abroad. During Operation Defensive Shield when Israel retook the West Bank in response to a wave of Palestinian suicide bombings, the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem served as a refuge for wanted terrorists. From Beit Jala, Palestinians opened fire from within churches at the Jewish Jerusalem neighborhood of Gilo, to force Israel to return fire that might damage the holy places.

Places sacred to Jews, such as Joseph’s Tomb or Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem, were attacked by gunfire. Other sites, such as the ancient synagogue in Jericho and the Tomb of Avner ben Ner in Hebron, also suffered from Arab harassment. Attempts by Israel to entrust the Temple Mount to the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority security apparatuses in Jerusalem failed and ended with riots and injury to Jewish worshipers at the Western Wall.

The Municipal Aspect

A separate section in this study is devoted to the municipal aspects of partition. Partition in the spirit of the “Clinton Parameters,” and even in a more moderate and less radical version, could restore Jerusalem to the status of an “outlying city” and inflict upon the city’s residents not only severe security distress, but economic collapse as well. Despite striking disparities in the level of services and infrastructure within the city, Jerusalem today enjoys common infrastructure systems in the areas of transportation, water, electricity, telephone, sewage and health.

Jewish Rights and Primacy in Jerusalem

This study opens with a brief survey accentuating the Jewish people´s rights and primacy in Jerusalem. This is required to counteract the sweeping denial of Jewish religious and historical links and rights to the city and its holy places that many Palestinians and their religious leaders are currently enunciating. Simultaneously, the history of Jerusalem is being rewritten in a manner that turns things topsy-turvy and depicts Islam as a religion that antedates Judaism in the city and claims that the mosques on the Temple Mount were erected even prior to the Jewish Temple, as well as denying the very existence of a Jewish temple on the Temple Mount. (Copyright © 2008 JCPA.)